Thai rice exports may fall as much as 12.5% in 2026 as baht bites

[BANGKOK] Thailand’s rice exports are projected to fall to 7 million metric tons next year from up to 8 million in 2025, with the strong baht making it harder to compete with the plentiful supplies of India, the commerce ministry said on Friday (Dec 26).

The baht has gained 10.5 per cent against the dollar so far this year to become Asia’s second-best performing currency. It has reached its highest level against the greenback in more than four years.

The baht’s strength has added to the problems in South-east Asia’s second-largest economy, which has been struggling with multiple headwinds this year, including US tariffs, high household debt, a border conflict with Cambodia and political uncertainty ahead of elections in early February.

The next government will need to address falling rice prices for farmers, who earlier this year demanded better support to tackle the problem.

Thai rice exports next year are expected to decline as they struggle to compete on prices, Arada Fuangtong, head of the foreign trade department, told a press conference.

“If the baht continues in this direction, it will pose a major challenge for Thai agricultural products,” she said, adding that the currency was 10–20 per cent stronger than competitors.

“The baht should be competitive and stable,” she added.

Arada said a deal to sell 500,000 tons of rice to China is expected to continue, supported by strong bilateral ties.

Last month, Thailand agreed to sell up to 100,000 tons of rice to Singapore over a five-year period, she said.

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In 2025, rice shipments are projected to reach 7.88 million to 8 million tons, beating a target of 7.5 million, helped by strong year-end demand, Arada said.

But the volume would still be below the nearly 10 million tons recorded last year, when Thailand was the world’s second-largest exporter of the grain after India.

In the first 11 months of 2025, rice shipments dropped 21 per cent year-on-year to 7.3 million tons, with the value down 30.3 per cent.

The decrease was due to abundant output, the release of large amounts of rice stocks by India, and the Philippines suspending rice imports, Arada said, adding the export value was hit by falling prices and the currency strength.

“The strong baht has continued to create problems for rice exports,” she said. REUTERS