Two steps forward, one step back at COP26

AMID the many twists and turns in the past 2 weeks, the recently concluded COP26 summit in Glasgow was ultimately a positive step in the right direction towards averting climate disaster.

The step, however, was a small one. More will need to be done at future UN climate conferences if the world is to head towards that 1.5 deg C goal.

Post-COP26, estimates are for the world's temperature to still be headed for a 2.4 deg C increase by the year 2100. This is an improvement of 2.7 deg C pre-COP26, but still way above the 1.5 deg C or even "well below" the 2 deg C goal set in the Paris Agreement.

There are many positives to take away from the climate summit. One of the biggest achievements from COP26 was the ratification by more than 100 countries to slash methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030.

Significantly, it is the first time since the Paris Agreement that efforts are made to tackle emissions other than carbon dioxide, leaving room for future COPs to target other greenhouse gases.

Another major win was the global pledge to end and reverse deforestation by the end of this decade. This was one of the first breakthroughs to be announced at COP26 and set the tone for a positive climate summit through the past 2 weeks.

One of the more surprising developments was an agreement by the United States and China - the world's top 2 emitters - to work together.

Reportedly, it was the US' intervention at the last minute that stopped China from scuppering the entire summit over the language over fossil fuels. It does show beyond geopolitical rivalry, there lies possibilities for humanity to band together in the face of an existential crisis.

Other positives include enhanced clarity surrounding international carbon markets, clear climate goals by 2030 and a deal to phase down coal consumption - the first time since the Paris Agreement that fossil fuels have been referenced to in all previous 26 COP iterations.

COP26 was headed for a modest success until a late turnaround from India and China regarding the use of language over fossil fuels.

Both countries objected to the phrase "phase out" of coal consumption, preferring the term "phase down" instead.

Understandably, there was much disappointment from many parties as that would fall short of "consigning coal to history" and casted a gloom over 2 weeks of what were considerably successful agreements.

Nonetheless, we do think COP26 was good progress for one summit. We would have liked COP26 to have fixed all of the world's climate problems in one sitting.

But from all the positive of COP26, we do see the potential for further climate collaboration. The 1.5 deg C goal is hanging by a thread, but it is still alive - and that hope is what humanity will continue to hang on to.

Singapore's role

Singapore has yet to set a firm deadline for when it plans to achieve its net-zero goal, expressing its intention to do so sometime in the second half of this century.

Post-COP26, however, Singapore is expected to review its climate pledge after it agreed to step up climate actions after ratifying the Glasgow Climate Pact.

There have already been plans by the country to begin importing low-carbon electricity from neighbouring countries, as announced at the last Singapore International Energy Week event.

Other possible measures include encouraging industrial energy efficiency, accelerating the pace of carbon tax increase and the purchase of carbon credits to meet climate goals.

What Singapore has achieved at the COP26 summit, in our opinion, would be one remembered for years to come.

Although far from perfect, a plethora of carbon market rules - pertaining to Article 6 of the Paris Agreement - were ironed out during COP26.

Finalising the Article 6 framework has always been one of the most challenging tasks since the Paris Agreement - the fact that it has been left unresolved since 2015 despite annual attempts at COPs shows the mammoth task that lay ahead.

Singapore was co-facilitator to Article 6 discussions during COP26 and played a key role to the relative success of finally firming up the framework for Article 6 - with the consulting of various ministers having begun earlier this year.

While far from perfect, the rules laid down for Article 6 allows for the global voluntary carbon offset market to begin realising its potential.

What can we next expect after COP26? With the taboo of talking about fossil fuels in US climate summits finally broken, the door is open for stronger decarbonisation plans in the future.

It may be gradual, but there is increasing climate cooperation globally. While the Paris Agreement created the ideas, the Glasgow Pact has set the wheels running. Hope is passion for what is possible, and global collaboration will continue to keep our climate goals alive.

• The writer is an economist at OCBC Bank.