US pork belly prices likely to fall as deadly pig virus wanes

Chicago

UNITED STATES pork belly prices are likely to fall further into the summer as supplies climb, now that farmers have finally controlled a deadly virus that wiped out millions of pigs, analysts said.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects pork production in 2015 to hit a record 24.09 million pounds as cases of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea virus (PEDv) wane, triggering an accompanying fall in prices. Hog slaughter and pork output both jumped over 11 per cent for the week ending March 28 versus last year.

Increased production should help keep pork belly prices at an average US$99 per hundredweight (cwt) during July to September, the height of the bacon-lettuce-tomato-sandwich season, compared with US$154.45 a year ago, according to independent market analyst Bob Brown.

PEDv killed at least eight million pigs in the past two years, roughly 10 per cent of the US hog population. But tight biosecurity measures are paying off and incidences of the virus have eased.

"We got a handle on PEDv at the baby pig level," Mr Brown said.

To counter losses from the virus farmers have been feeding hogs to heavier weights, which is adding to pressure on pork belly and sausage trimming prices. In February, the average carcass basis hog was US$61.82 per cwt, a six-year low, the USDA said.

A strong US dollar is also deterring foreign buyers and raising Canadian imports of pork bellies to the US. A backlog of pork on West Coast docks following a prolonged labour dispute is adding further pressure. REUTERS