Wall Street is betting billions on an EV-fuelled lithium comeback

New York

WALL Street hasn't been this bullish about lithium in years.

Investors are betting on a comeback in the metal key to rechargeable batteries as the world's biggest automakers ratchet up their electric-vehicle (EV) lines. Miners once shunned amid supply overhangs have raised almost US$3.4 billion in equity offerings in the Americas this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That's seven times the total amount raised from 2018 to 2020.

The change breathes new life into an industry that saw prices of its main product plunge by more than half from a record high reached in 2018. It also highlights a bullish wager that's still available on the EV frenzy as sentiment toward EV stocks, which surged last year, sours.

Talks with investors and discussions on potential supply agreements with automotive-equipment and battery manufacturers "which were only in my dreams a year ago are now filling my calendar", Robert Mintak, chief executive officer of Vancouver-based Standard Lithium, said.

Interest in the industry is resurgent as EV targets set by big automakers and a change in the US administration signal that a battery boom is finally gathering momentum.

After the punishing three-year sell-off, prices of the soft silvery-white metal have started to rebound, and analysts including those at BloombergNEF expect further gains on rising demand and tight supplies of battery-grade lithium.

A lithium price index compiled by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence jumped 32 per cent this year through February, after plunging 59 per cent from mid-2018 to mid-2020. The metal reached an all-time high in May 2018.

The investor pool "is expanded to technology investors and others", said Mr Mintak, as major automakers' determination to deploy hundreds of billions of dollars to electrify their fleets gives investors "that safety that there's going to be a supply pinch".

The majority of the financing has been done by the world's top two lithium miners - Albemarle Corp and SQM, or Soc Quimica & Minera de Chile, as it's known formally - as they took advantage of their recent stock surges. Albemarle completed a larger-than-planned equity offering of US$1.5 billion in early February, while Santiago-based SQM raised US$1.1 billion in January.

Junior miners, most of which have yet to produce substantial amount of lithium, are also attracting strong interest from investors. Take the case of Standard Lithium, which opened its first direct lithium extraction plant in El Dorado, Arkansas, in September, with the facility using a new technology that allows for a 90 per cent lithium recovery rate. It raised C$34.53 million (S$37.5 million) in an over-subscribed share offering in December. Investor interest was so strong that it had to turn away offers for more, said CEO Mintak.

Lithium Americas, which is developing the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, raised a total of US$500 million through two primary share offerings in October and January, respectively.

"The tide is finally turning, and much faster than I thought," said Chris Berry, president of House Mountain Partners, an industry consultant, who added Wall Street hasn't been this bullish on the lithium industry since 2017. "You see that with Lithium Americas being able to raise a total of half a billion dollars recently. This is for a pre-revenue company regarding lithium."

Sigma Lithium Resources, which is developing a hard-rock lithium project in Brazil, had to upsize its private placement and increase offering price, which "says a lot about investor demand for lithium exposure, that asset, and that company's vision", said Mr Berry.

Junior lithium miners raised US$529 million this year, Bloomberg data showed. That's about US$63 million more than the total amount raised from 2018 to 2020.

Ford Motor announced last month that its passenger-vehicle range will be all-electric in Europe by 2030. General Motors plans to sell only zero-emission models by 2035. Volkswagen went further, announcing plans last week to build six battery factories in Europe and invest globally in charging stations, as ensuring scaling battery production has become a key in the EV race.

Batteries make up about 30 per cent of an electric car's cost. And automakers around the world look to pivot to EVs, with hopes to get batteries at the cheapest price possible but also secure enough supply to meet those ambitions.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has pledged to build back the economy after the devastation of Covid-19 with cleaner energy and a lower carbon footprint. The administration said in late February it would conduct a government review of US supply chains to seek to end the country's reliance on China and other adversaries for crucial goods.

The election of Mr Biden is "a very favourable signal to investors" as it boosted confidence that the switch to clean energy will accelerate, which along with existing favourable subsidies and regulations in Europe and China bodes well for raw materials needed for that energy transition, said Seth Goldstein, an analyst at Morningstar. The US is the second-largest EV market, after China.

Andrew Bowering, a director at Vancouver-based American Lithium, called the US review on supply chains "huge" for the lithium industry as it shows the government's realisation that in order to meet clean-energy goals, it's important for the US to have a security of supply of raw materials such as lithium.

"All of a sudden, after three years of downturn, you've got the price of the commodity starting to go up again and a change in the administration in the US that's pushing a green new deal and support big money going into the green automobile industry," said Mr Bowering. "That leads investors into the space." BLOOMBERG