Global shares hit 4-year high, volatile Treasuries flat over 2023
WORLD shares were little changed on the last trading day of the year but were heading for their best annual performance since 2019, while US Treasuries are set to finish the year broadly where they started, camouflaging some wild moves for the benchmark in 2023.
Shares around the world have risen sharply in the last two months of the year, as benchmark bond yields fell on the back of expectations of central bank rate cuts early in 2023.
The S&P 500 closed on Thursday (Dec 28) just 0.3 per cent shy of its record closing high, reached on Jan 3, 2022, leaving traders on edge to see whether the benchmark will reach a new peak before the year-end.
The Wall Street index, along with The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were all little changed on Friday.
“Today’s market is the beneficiary of the broader macro-economic backdrop with regard to the Fed, but also appreciated evidence of the still resilient labour market,” Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, said.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 25 per cent this year thanks to a massive rally in megacap tech stocks, while Europe’s Stoxx 600, currently around a 23-month peak, is heading for a nearly 13 per cent yearly gain, and MSCI’s world share index a 20 per cent gain, its most in four years. All rallied sharply in November and December.
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“We have eaten a lot of the returns that were expected in 2024. The positive momentum in markets is obviously associated with the fall in yields, and so now the question is how long can this trend continue?” said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.
Chaar said that future returns “are probably more moderate” than they were at the beginning of November, but if long term US interest rates settle around 3.5 or 4 per cent, there is “little danger of a big U-turn” and continued corporate profits might add “a few per cent of upside”.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 3.881 per cent, up 3.1 basis points on the day, and remarkably just a few basis points above its level at the start of the year.
That yearly performance masks some major swings, as the note’s yield reached 5.021 per cent in October, its highest since 2007, before retreating and driving the share rally.
Behind the move lower in yields has been a sustained decline in inflation around the world that has driven expectations that central banks will be cutting interest rates early next year, even as the US economy has broadly remained strong.
Markets are pricing in an 88 per cent chance of the US Federal Reserve starting its rate cuts in March, according to CME FedWatch tool, compared to 35 per cent chance at the end of November. Traders are also pricing in over 150 basis points of easing next year by the Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England.
Spanish inflation was a rare piece of economic data during the quiet period between Christmas and New Year. The country’s European Union-harmonised 12-month inflation was unchanged from November at 3.3 per cent, though below the 3.4 per cent expected by analysts polled by Reuters.
Chinese underperformance
Chinese markets have been standout underperformers, despite optimism at the start of the year when Beijing ended its zero-Covid policy.
Both Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and China’s onshore blue chip index lost more than 10 per cent in the year on waning investor confidence in the world’s second-largest economy.
Those losses compare to the Nasdaq, which powered 44 per cent higher in 2023, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index, which gained 28 per cent.
In the currency market, the US dollar was on the back foot and headed for a 2 per cent decline this year after two years of strong gains, with declines mirroring the fall in US yields.
Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar was last at 101.36, edging away from the five-month low of 100.61 it touched on Wednesday.
In commodities, Chicago wheat and corn futures were set for the biggest annual drop in a decade as easing supply bottlenecks in the Black Sea region and higher production weighed on prices.
Oil prices were due to end 2023 down 10 per cent after a year of wild swings driven by geopolitical concerns, production cuts and global measures to rein in inflation.
On Friday, US crude rose 0.92 per cent to US$72.43 per barrel and Brent was at US$77.82, up 0.87 per cent on the day.
Gold prices rose a touch on Friday and were poised to end their best year since 2020. Spot gold dropped 0.2 per cent to US$2,061.39 an ounce. REUTERS
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