Gold could hit US$5,000 an ounce in 2026 if risk hedging persists: market watchers

[SINGAPORE] Gold has surged more than 60 per cent since the beginning of 2025 – its strongest annual performance since 1979 – and is now firmly consolidating above US$4,000 an ounce. 

While the precious metal may not perform quite as well in the months ahead, some analysts see it testing US$5,000 an ounce by the end of 2026 on the back of continued central bank buying, government policy shifts and geopolitical risk hedging. 

These were exactly the “structural factors” that spurred its rise in 2025, said Robin Tsui, Asia-Pacific gold strategist at State Street Investment Management. “To hit the bull case, I think we need some of what we call black swan events: equity market corrections, more political tensions and more rate cuts than expected.”