Gold on track for US$6,000 by year-end despite recent volatility: Deutsche Bank Private Bank CIO

[SINGAPORE] Despite the recent pullback and heightened volatility of gold prices, the outlook for the yellow metal remains positive, said Deutsche Bank Private Bank global chief investment officer Christian Nolting.

The historic dip in gold prices, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair on Jan 30, was a “healthy correction” from record-high prices observed in January, he said at a media briefing in Singapore on the private bank’s investment outlook.

Nolting pointed out that the metal’s current corrected price of around US$4,800 to US$4,900 is still up from around US$4,300 at the start of 2026. Gold is likely to maintain its “structurally positive trend”, he said.

Deutsche Bank maintained its long-term gold price target of US$6,000 an ounce by end-2026 – a 25 per cent increase from current prices – despite heavy selling.

Look beyond

Amid fluctuating market conditions, Nolting urged investors to diversify their portfolios and focus on artificial intelligence (AI)-related asset classes.

While share prices of AI-related companies have risen sharply over the past year and momentum remains strong, investors can branch out to alternative assets along the “AI value chain” to prevent overconcentration.

As global private investment in AI gathers pace in major economies such as the US, the European Union and China, private equity and private debt are set to become “massive growth markets”, he said.

In global private markets, assets under management (AUM) in private debt are projected to increase 79 per cent to about US$6 trillion by 2029, and private equity AUM is predicted to increase 53 per cent to about US$9 trillion, according to the bank’s 2026 outlook report. 

Despite the growth potential, investors should focus less on return expectations and more on the various opportunities that alternative investments offer for portfolio diversification, said Nolting.

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Utilities and construction sectors also stand to benefit from being part of the AI supply chain, with earnings growth for companies in major regions projected to be “firmly in double-digit territory”.

Incorporating such exposures can support portfolio performance, while improving overall balance, he added.