JPMorgan sees US$4,500 gold price in Q4, says risks to downside

[BENGALURU] JPMorgan said demand for gold from key sectors would not be as strong as it had expected, limiting the rise in gold prices this year to US$4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and US$4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter.

The bank said the risks to its forecast skew to the downside, given possible early interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve if data were to come in hot over the balance of the summer. As recently as Jun 9, JPMorgan had said it expected gold prices to rise to US$6,000 by year-end.

On Friday, spot gold was up 1.3 per cent at US$4,174.21 per ounce at 12.41 pm GMT, after hitting its highest since Jun 23. Bullion was up over 2 per cent for the week so far.

High interest rates would weigh on non-yielding bullion as investors turn to assets that offer better returns.

The bank retained a long-term bullish view, saying gold could extend gains in 2027 as central bank purchases and physical demand strengthen amid enduring structural drivers of accumulation.

It also forecast silver prices to average US$60 to US$65 per ounce over its outlook horizon as the market moves away from last year’s tight physical conditions and the gold-to-silver ratio normalises.

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Platinum prices are expected to average about US$1,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 and rise to around US$1,950 per ounce by the end of 2027, supported by supply-side fundamentals in South Africa.

The bank forecasts palladium prices at US$1,350 per ounce by end-2026, and expects it to average around US$1,300 in 2027, in line with broader weakness across the precious metals complex. REUTERS