Nasdaq-100 advances into uncharted territory

AS AT Jun 4, the Nasdaq-100 continued its remarkable advance, reaching an all-time high at 30,762 before closing at about 30,407.

The index has gained more than 40 per cent over the past 12 months, extending a rally that accelerated following the sharp correction in March 2026.

Despite concerns surrounding inflation, interest rates, and elevated bond yields, investor appetite for growth and technology stocks has remained resilient, allowing the index to hit new highs.

The current rally marks a significant turnaround from the technical weakness seen earlier this year. Following the February 2026 breakdown below the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) levels, the market appeared vulnerable to a deeper correction.

That correction materialised in March 2026, when the geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Iran conflict triggered a broad market sell-off. The Nasdaq-100 fell towards the 23,850 region, testing levels not seen since late 2025 and approaching its 200-day SMA. However, the decline proved temporary. As tensions eased and ceasefire discussions emerged, buyers returned aggressively, driving a powerful recovery that has lifted the index by more than 6,000 points from its March low.

One of the most important technical developments from this rebound is the decisive breakout above the former double-top resistance at 26,030 to 26,180. This area has now transformed into a major support zone through a classic resistance-to-support reversal. The successful breakout effectively invalidated the bearish implications of the earlier double-top pattern and restored the longer-term bullish trend.

From a momentum perspective, the Nasdaq-100 remains firmly bullish. However, technical indicators suggest that the pace of the advance may be slowing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the traditional overbought threshold of 70, reflecting strong buying momentum. At the same time, the RSI has begun to form lower highs while the index continues to make higher highs. This bearish divergence does not necessarily indicate an imminent reversal, but it does suggest that upside momentum is becoming less powerful compared to earlier stages of the rally.

With the index now trading at record levels, there is no historical resistance overhead. As a result, psychological price levels have become increasingly important. A sustained hold above 30,000 would reinforce the strength of the current breakout and could pave the way towards the next major milestones at 31,000 and 32,000.

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Should the rally encounter profit-taking pressure, the first warning sign would be a sustained move back below the 30,000 level. Initial support would likely emerge around the rising 20-day SMA, currently situated in the upper 29,700 region, followed by the 50-day SMA around the 27,600 region. More importantly, the former breakout zone from earlier in the year, between 26,030 and 26,180, remains the key structural support level.

As long as this area continues to hold, the broader bullish outlook remains intact, and any pullback would likely be viewed as a correction within an ongoing uptrend.

While macroeconomic developments, inflation data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and bond market movements will continue to influence sentiment, the technical picture remains constructive. The Nasdaq-100 has successfully overcome one of its most significant resistance zones from the past year and continues to trade well above its major moving averages.

In summary, the Nasdaq-100 remains in a strong bullish trend. Although momentum indicators suggest the rally may become stretched in the near term, the trend remains firmly positive while the index holds above 30,000 and, more importantly, above the 26,030 to 26,180 support zone. Investors should continue monitoring these levels closely as the market navigates the next stage of its advance in uncharted territory.

The writer is manager of dealing and investor education at Phillip Securities