Nasdaq 100 ends November in recovery mode

THE Nasdaq 100 entered the final stretch of November 2025 in recovery after a sharp mid-month pullback. The index had reached fresh all-time highs between October and early November before closing the month down by more than 2 per cent.

Selling pressure intensified in the second half of November, with the index briefly falling nearly 9 per cent from its peak. This drawdown remained within the threshold of a healthy bull-market correction, and the market subsequently staged a robust rebound in the final days of the month.

From a technical standpoint, using a Fibonacci retracement measured from the late-October high to the November low, the index is now trading near the 38.2 per cent level at roughly 25,292, a zone that currently acts as the first key test for buyers attempting to regain momentum.

A closer look at the technical structure shows that the November low aligned almost perfectly with the resistance level from August 2025, which has now converted into a support floor. That same low also touched the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), near 24,211, representing a critical longer-term trend indicator.

The sharp rebound from this area reinforces its importance as a structural anchor for the ongoing bull trend. As the index recovered, it also reclaimed ground, rising above the 50-day SMA around 24,996, which now serves as an intermediary support level and a reference point for assessing the strength of the current upswing.

The price action in November broke below the lower boundary of the uptrend channel that had guided the market from May to October. This signals a moderation in the rally’s pace, though the overall correction remained less than 10 per cent, keeping the index consistent within typical bull-market behaviour.

The bullish case for the Nasdaq 100 rests on the index’s ability to maintain its recent recovery above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages while building strength above the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement. A decisive move above 25,292 would indicate improving demand after the sharp pullback and open the path towards the higher retracement levels derived from the October peak.

Should the index stabilise above these thresholds, market participants may begin to reassess the November correction as a temporary reset within a longer-term expansion. Investors will also be looking closely at macroeconomic factors, particularly the December 2025 Fed rate meeting.

However, if the index struggles to hold above the 50-day moving average or begins to retest the 100-day moving average, the rebound could falter, raising the likelihood of a deeper retracement into December. The break below the May-October uptrend channel also sets a higher bar for a sustainable resumption of the strong rally that dominated much of 2025. If downward pressure returns, the ability of the August highs and the 100-day SMA to function as durable support will be crucial for maintaining the broader bullish structure.

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For now, the Nasdaq 100 is navigating a transition phase after a volatile November. The recovery from November lows and the move back above essential moving averages suggest the market is attempting to re-establish footing. Whether this sets the stage for a year-end “Santa rally” or a period of sideways adjustment will depend on how the index performs around these pivotal levels in the weeks ahead.

The writer is manager of dealing and investor education at Phillip Securities