Nasdaq’s bullish trend entering consolidation phase
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AS THE Nasdaq 100 moved into mid-March 2026, the index remained under pressure following the formation of a double top near 26,182, established in late 2025 and reaffirmed in early 2026. This key resistance zone continued to cap upside attempts, reinforcing the view that the prior bullish trend may have now entered a consolidation phase.
Recent price action has seen the index drift lower towards a critical support region between 23,854 and 24,010, which aligns with the November 2025 low and the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level derived from the February to April 2025 correction and extended to the November 2025 high. This confluence of historical price support and Fibonacci alignment makes the current zone pivotal for near-term direction.
From a trend perspective, the technical structure has weakened compared to late 2025. The Nasdaq 100 had consistently traded above its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) from May 2025 through January 2026, using it as a reliable support base during pullbacks.
However, the breakdown in February 2026 marked a significant shift in sentiment, with the index falling below both the 50-day and 100-day SMA levels, signalling deterioration in medium-term momentum.
Further downside pressure has brought the index towards the 200-day SMA, currently around the 24,350 level, where it has recently tested and briefly stabilised. The 200-day SMA now serves as an important long-term trend gauge, and its proximity to current price action highlights the fragile balance between maintaining a broader bullish structure and slipping into a deeper correction.
The emerging price formation suggests the Nasdaq 100 may be trading within a mild downward-sloping channel as it approaches the end of the first quarter of 2026. While this could indicate the early stages of a trend reversal, it may also represent a consolidation phase following the strong rally seen throughout much of 2025. The distinction will largely depend on how price reacts within the current support zone.
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If the 23,850-24,000 support band holds, the index could attempt a technical rebound. Initial resistance is likely at the previously broken 100-day SMA, followed by the broader resistance zone at 26,182, where a potential triple top scenario may emerge if upside momentum remains limited.
On the other hand, a decisive break below this support region would increase the probability of a deeper retracement, opening the path towards lower Fibonacci levels such as 23,340, with further downside risk if selling pressure accelerates.
In summary, the Nasdaq 100 is entering a critical phase as it approaches the close of 1Q 2026. The long-standing double top at 26,182, combined with the breakdown below key moving averages, points to a more cautious technical outlook. However, the index is now testing a significant support cluster around 23,850-24,000, which could determine whether the current movement remains a consolidation within a broader bull cycle or evolves into a more sustained correction.
The writer is manager of dealing and investor education at Phillip Securities
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