Obesity drugs are a potential US$100 billion opportunity by 2030, say Goldman Sachs analysts

AS THE buzz surrounding weight-loss drugs gets ever louder, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group are predicting a potential US$100 billion market opportunity, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk leading the pack.

Eli Lilly, whose pipeline of drugs includes Mounjaro, is now the world’s biggest health-care company by market value. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk became Europe’s most valuable listed company last month, boosted by market enthusiasm for its Ozempic and Wegovy drugs. Shares of both companies have surged this year.

“The chronic weight management market is undergoing an inflection,” analysts including Chris Shibutani wrote. They see scope for “solid growth ahead and a peak opportunity that, by our estimates, could ultimately yield some of the highest grossing drugs of all time.”

The Goldman analysts see the global market for anti-obesity medicines potentially growing to about US$100 billion in 2030, compared with about US$6 billion in annualised sales earlier this year. This is based on roughly 15 million US adults receiving anti-obesity medicine treatment for chronic weight loss management in 2030, out of about 105 million obese or overweight adults in the US. The analysts excluded diabetics from their obesity projections.

Novo Nordisk’s drugs for diabetes and weight loss, a class of medicines known as GLP-1s, share the same active ingredient called semaglutide. They work by suppressing the appetite as well as slowing the movement of food through the digestive tract. Meanwhile, Lilly’s tirzepatide – already approved for diabetes as Mounjaro – is expected to enter the weight-loss market with an approval for obesity expected by the end of the year.

Consensus expectations suggest Lilly and Novo Nordisk will have a duopoly, in which the two drugmakers will capture about 80 per cent of the obesity market in 2030, according to the Goldman analysts. “A dominant leadership position can be maintained at this level,” they wrote. BLOOMBERG