Oil settles lower but ends quarter up 28% on tight global supply

OIL prices settled 1 per cent lower on Friday (Sep 29) due to macroeconomic concerns and profit taking, but rose about 30 per cent in the quarter as Opec+ production cuts squeezed global crude supply.

Front-month Brent November futures settled down 7 cents to US$95.31 per barrel at the contract’s expiry, up about 2.2 per cent in the week and 27 per cent in the third quarter. The more liquid Brent December contract was settled down 90 cents to US$92.20 per barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down 92 cents to US$90.97, up 1 per cent in the week and 29 per cent in the quarter.

With oil futures inching closer to US$100 a barrel, many investors took profits on the rally given ongoing macroeconomic concerns.

“WTI has been the belle of the ball, but today it’s losing its luster,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York, citing profit taking and economic concerns.

Oil and gas activity in three US energy producing states has been rising with the latest jump in prices, a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated.

In July, US crude production grew to its highest since November 2019, based on data from the Energy Information Administration.

Investors looked ahead to a potential partial US government shutdown on Sunday, an “unnecessary risk” to a resilient US economy, top White House economic adviser Lael Brainard said.

Worries about the Chinese economy also intensified as shares of indebted property developer Evergrande Group were suspended until further notice following a report that its chairman had been placed under police watch.

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All eyes on Saudi Arabia production as oil prices continue to stay elevated

The US oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by seven to 623 in the week to Sep 29, the lowest since February 2022, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.

While the total rig count fell by 51 in the third quarter, the cuts have slowed compared with a reduction of 81 in the second quarter as oil prices have rebounded due to tightening supplies.

Brent is forecast to average US$89.85 a barrel in the fourth quarter and US$86.45 in 2024, based on a survey of 42 economists compiled by Reuters on Friday.

The Opec+ ministerial panel meeting will take place on Oct 4 and there is “increasing probability the voluntary supply cuts by Aramco are reduced,” National Australia Bank analysts said in a client note, referring to Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer.

The supply cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to dominate oil prices for the remainder of this year.

However, a run towards US$100 per barrel could be short-lived because of “the artificial nature of supply shortages in the system, and the fragile macro environment”, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank. REUTERS