Oil steady as markets weigh Opec+ surprise cuts amid demand woes

OIL prices were little changed in choppy trading on Tuesday (Apr 4) as investors weighed Opec+ planned production cuts against weak US and Chinese economic data that could suggest cooling oil demand.

Brent crude futures settled 1 cent higher at US$84.94 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures closed up 29 cents, or 0.4 per cent, at US$80.71 a barrel.

“We will need to see demand hold and grow to push crude into the upper US$80’s,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

Brent crude and WTI had jumped by more than 6 per cent on Monday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, collectively known as Opec+, rocked markets with an announcement of voluntary production cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day (bpd) from May until the end of 2023.

US job openings in February fell to the lowest level in nearly two years and a slump in US manufacturing activity in March raised concerns about oil demand. Weak manufacturing activity in China last month also added to the woes.

Stock markets declined on the weaker economic data, while gold crossed the key US$2,000 level as investors rushed to buy the safe haven asset.

The economic signals ran alongside fears of an inflationary hit to the world economy, as rising oil prices fuel higher interest rates.

Opec+’s latest output targets bring the total volume of cuts by Opec+ to 3.66 million bpd, including a 2 million-barrel cut last October, equal to about 3.7 per cent of global demand.

The production curbs led many analysts to raise their Brent oil price forecasts to around US$100 per barrel by year-end. Goldman Sachs lifted its forecast for Brent to US$95 a barrel by the end of 2023, and to US$100 for 2024.

SEE ALSO

Oil settles up on China demand hopes, posts weekly gain

Meanwhile, US crude oil stockpiles drew by more than 4 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. A preliminary Reuters poll had estimated a 2.3 million barrel drop in inventories.

The US Energy Information Administration will release its data at 10.30 am (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

Market watchers have been trying to gauge how much longer the US Federal Reserve Bank may need to keep raising rates to cool inflation, and whether the US economy may be headed for a recession.

Investors now see an about 40 per cent chance the Fed will hike rates by a quarter basis point in May, with a roughly 60 per cent chance of a pause. REUTERS