PFIZER on Monday (Oct 16) set off a fresh round of concern about the size of the Covid-19 vaccine and treatment market in the long term, driving down shares of its German partner BioNTech and smaller rival Moderna.

On Friday, Pfizer reduced its full-year forecast for sales of its antiviral Covid treatment Paxlovid by about US$7 billion, and for the vaccine it developed with BioNTech by about US$2 billion due to a plunge in the use of pandemic-related products.

Moderna, the company’s primary competitor in Covid vaccines, said on Monday that it was currently comfortable with its outlook for demand.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that around 17 per cent of the US population will get updated Covid vaccines during the current vaccination campaign, in line with last year, but far below rates seen when vaccines first emerged in the spring of 2021.

“We right now are in the middle of Covid fatigue, where everyone wants to forget about the disease,” he said on Monday.

When asked about future years, Bourla said the company expects this year’s demand to be the base rate for future years but that it was still watching the current campaign to be sure.

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“Whatever will be the vaccination rate here, it is our expectation will become a solid foundation that will be the vaccination rate for the years to come,” he said.

Pfizer’s stock rose 3.6 per cent on Monday, while shares of BioNTech dropped 7.3 per cent in Frankfurt. Moderna was down 2.8 per cent in New York.

Moderna maintained its current revenue forecast of US$6 billion to US$8 billion for its Covid vaccine for 2023.

Pfizer said it will take a non-cash charge of US$5.5 billion in the third quarter due to US$4.6 billion in inventory write-offs for Paxlovid and US$900 million of write-offs for the vaccine, while BioNTech flagged write-downs of up to 900 million euros (S$1.3 billion).

A BioNTech spokesperson declined to comment on the company’s current 2023 outlook.

Analysts said Pfizer’s Covid sales forecast cut was bigger than expected. Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said the lowered outlook implies lower sales for Moderna, estimating that only roughly 35 million to 40 million people would get vaccinated in the winter, versus Moderna’s expectation for 50 million shots.

BioNTech, which relies on vaccine-related profit-sharing payments from Pfizer for much of its revenue, said the write-offs would also reduce its 2023 revenue.

The company added that it had been told by Pfizer that most of the write-offs relate to raw materials, as well as to inventories of vaccine versions that are older or different from the upgraded one currently in use.

Pfizer’s shares, which are down about 37 per cent this year, trade 9.8 times their 12-month forward earnings estimate, while BioNTech trades at 26.7, according to LSEG data. REUTERS