Slide in S'pore stocks expected to continue

[SINGAPORE] Baring Asset Management Co and Bank Julius Baer & Co expect a deepening slump in Singapore stocks, the worst performers this year among South-east Asian markets.

The benchmark Straits Times Index dropped 4.9 per cent from Dec 31 through last week, trailing gauges of Thai, Indonesian, Malaysian and Philippine equities by at least 1.8 percentage points. Stocks sank as data showed home purchases tumbled last year to a four-year low and retail sales dropped, while manufacturing growth weakened in China, Singapore's biggest export market.

"The Singapore sell-off is due in large part to the sputtering domestic economy," said David Ross, Maryland, Washington-based managing director of Chevy Chase Trust Co, which oversees about US$15 billion. "The weakening consumer economy portends weakness in the property segment that could send ripples through the financial system. While not the most likely scenario, the odds of a bursting property bubble are increasing."

Singapore shares posted the third-biggest decline among developed markets this year after as much as US$3 trillion was wiped from equities worldwide on concern that the global economic recovery is faltering. The city's regulators said last Friday that they may introduce a minimum price for stocks and impose collaterals and other restrictions for trades after a slump in the shares of three commodity companies erased US$6.9 billion in market value over three days in October.

Singapore companies will struggle to boost profits amid rising wages and weakening demand for property, according to Baring Asset and Samsung Asset Management Co.

House prices in Singapore, ranked the most-expensive city to buy a luxury home in Asia after Hong Kong, slid in the fourth quarter for the first time in almost two years, trimming annual gains to the smallest since 2008. Two of the three biggest declines on the Straits Times Index last year were property developers.

CapitaMalls Asia Ltd, the worst-performer on the gauge in 2014, may report this week that 2013 net income dropped 19 per cent, based on the average of 15 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profits at Straits Times Index member companies are expected to fall one per cent this year, the data shows.

"Singapore earnings growth is likely to disappoint this year," Alan Richardson, whose Samsung Asean Equity Fund outperformed 96 per cent of peers tracked by Bloomberg during the past 12 months, said by phone from Hong Kong last week. "The key detractors are falling property prices and slowing economic growth in China. The market has already factored in these issues but a sustained market recovery will be difficult if fundamentals are deteriorating."

The daily value of equities traded in Singapore sank to an average S$1.08 billion this year from S$1.77 billion in the same part of 2014, as risk sentiment deteriorated after a plunge in the shares of Blumont Group Ltd, Asiasons Capital Ltd and LionGold Corp in October.

The country may set up an independent listing committee and boost enforcement, according to a joint statement from the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Singapore Exchange Ltd last Friday, following its market structure review spurred by the stock slump.

The city-state also plans to shorten the trade settlement period to two days from three by 2016 and impose more transparency for short selling, the central bank and exchange said. They are seeking industry feedback over the next three months.

The Straits Times Index dropped 4.4 per cent in January, the worst start of the year since 2010 and the first time in four years that it underperformed all South-east Asian markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

"This is one of the worst Januarys we've seen," said Manoj Chaman Lal, vice-president of corporate broking at CIMB Securities Singapore Pte. "We never really got out of the October 'crisis'. If I could snap a picture of what the trading room looks like, it's almost like a library."

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is pushing companies to produce more with fewer employees as the island confronts an ageing population and voter discontent about foreign workers. Policies ranging from higher levies for overseas labour to tighter limits on non-Singaporeans in some industries, have boosted costs for companies including SIA Engineering Co, which said higher wages helped spur a 9.7 per cent drop in third-quarter profit.

"Sentiment on Singapore isn't that great," Soo Hai Lim, a Hong Kong- based fund manager at Baring Asset, which oversees about US$60 billion. "The market is drifting lower as there are no visible catalysts. Cost pressures, particularly on wages, for Singapore companies are quite high and that's going to eat into their profits." Shares on the Singapore benchmark index traded at 13 times estimated earnings last Wednesday, the lowest since June 2012. The gauge gained 1.8 per cent from then through the end of the week.

"We see a sell-off in the Singapore market to be short-lived," Kum Soek Ching, Singapore-based head of South-east Asia research at Credit Suisse Private Banking, said by email last Tuesday. "Valuations look quite attractive."

Wing Tai Holdings Ltd, a developer of luxury homes near the Orchard Road shopping belt, said last month that net income in the three months ended Dec 31 tumbled 45 per cent as demand for new residential projects has been adversely affected by tighter mortgage lending policies at Singapore banks.

DBS Group Holdings Ltd, South-east Asia's biggest lender, is expected to report this week a 4.9 per cent decline in 2013 profit, according to the average of 23 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Equities around the world are declining this year as China's economy slows, emerging-market currencies slump and the Federal Reserve cuts stimulus. The MSCI World Index has lost 2.9 per cent since Dec 31.

Indonesia was the only Asian nation among eight tracked by Bloomberg where foreign investors bought more stocks than they sold this year. Investors dumped US$2.3 billion of South Korean equities and US$1.4 billion of shares in Taiwan, the data shows.

"The money flow is not coming back to Asia for a while," Mark Matthews, Singapore-based head of Asia research for Julius Baer, which oversees about US$377 billion in client assets, said by phone on Monday last week. "I don't see the bottom for Singapore happening any time soon." - Bloomberg