Sluggish loan growth, economic uncertainties cloud Singapore’s banking prospects: RHB
Daphne Yow
RHB Research has cut its weighting for the banking sector to “neutral” from “overweight” as it foresees waning business and consumer sentiment, along with low demand for credit, to partially offset still-healthy net interest margins (NIMs) of Singapore’s banks.
These factors are likely to keep the share prices of the banks range-bound in the near future, said RHB’s research team in a report on Monday (Jul 10).
UOB is RHB’s top sector pick as the only banking stock with a “buy” recommendation, given its smallest exposure to China among the trio of local banks. The research house is “neutral” on DBS and recently downgraded OCBC to the same.
Noting that sector loans “remained subdued” in Q2 2023, along with stagnation in Singapore’s manufacturing and financial services sectors, RHB said there may be downside risks to its sector loans’ growth forecast of 3.7 per cent on the year.
“Given investor concerns that these two sectors would continue to languish in the near term, business sentiment has turned weak, with demand for credit noticeably softer and NIM tailwinds waning,” added the research team.
It believes investors are likely to “shy away from bank stocks” in the immediate term given the weaker external outlook.
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A drop in new housing loan bookings due to recent property cooling measures is only likely to impact banks’ mortgage books a year later, it said.
RHB also anticipates credit demand and investment banking activities to remain soft in H2 2023, as it believes business confidence and consumer sentiment has weakened due to heightened growth uncertainties in global economies.
Unfavourable market conditions have further hindered Singapore banks’ ability to deploy funds from strong inflows of net new money, it noted.
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Despite overall expectations of sluggish loan growth, NIMs remain a bright spot for the banking sector as RHB forecasts another year of strong net interest income (NII).
The research team projects the banks’ NIMs to average at higher levels in FY2023 than FY2022, as much of the 500 basis points increase in US interest rates already occurred in H2 2022.
Overall sector earnings are predicted to grow by 23 per cent year on year in FY2023 due to healthy NII growth and a moderation in operating expenditure growth.
This will, however, be followed by a “muted” 1 per cent year-on-year growth in FY2024, said RHB, as NIMs are expected to narrow due to higher cost of funds.
Although sector valuations appear “undemanding” in its view, RHB noted that the banks’ share prices have underperformed the broader market’s year-to-date decline.
“China’s slower-than-expected economic recovery and troubled property sector are other headwinds that worry investors, even though the banks remain comfortable with their China exposures,” noted the analysts.
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