Nvidia shares near level where technical traders see a breakout
Shares of the chip giant are up more than 10% in the past six sessions, their longest winning streak since October
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[NEW YORK] After months of sluggish returns, Nvidia’s stock is rallying again and close to breaking out of its narrow trading range, which market technicians see as a bullish signal.
Shares of the chip giant are up more than 10 per cent in the past six sessions, their longest winning streak since October. This comes after substantial stretch of nothing, with the shares essentially flat from September 2025 through the end of last month. They closed trading on Wednesday (Apr 8) at US$182, near the US$185 level that technical traders are watching closely.
“If Nvidia sustains above US$185, I would say the money is ready to run back in,” said Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG’s chief market technician. “The long-term trend remains positive.”
Holding above the US$185 level would signal that the stock has put in its low and is ready to start climbing, according to Krinsky. “Since it was in an uptrend prior to the consolidation, we want to see this range-trading resolve with Nvidia moving higher,” he said.
US stocks rallied on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced a two-week truce in the war with Iran to let the two sides continue negotiating a ceasefire agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about a possible global economic crisis. Nvidia led point gainers in the S&P 500 Index, rising 2.2 per cent.
A breakout by the chipmaker would be welcome for investors. Nvidia’s stock – which for years was among the market’s best performers and still commands the largest weight in the S&P 500 – has been trading sideways for months amid concerns that megacap technology companies would not see meaningful returns on heavy spending to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence anytime soon.
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The shares may need to eclipse US$200 to make a decisive move higher, according to Buff Dormeier, chief technical analyst at Kingsview Partners in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
“If we started to get a signal of that, we could easily be back to the races, especially since Nvidia is a bellwether for the megacaps and the broad market,” he said. “And if we do start to see capital redeploy, I think there’s a lot of room to the upside. Nvidia looks a lot healthier now than it has in the past from a valuation standpoint.”
To Dormeier’s point, the stock does look relatively cheap. It is trading at roughly 20 times earnings over the next 12 months, down substantially from its 10-year average multiple of around 36. It has one of the lowest valuations among the Magnificent Seven tech behemoths and is roughly in line with the broader S&P 500.
Of course, if Nvidia shares fail to sustain their current rally, the bullish signal will cut the other way. Technicians are also watching the US$170 level, and if the stock falls below that price it could signal further downside.
“Nvidia recently violated support there,” Dormeier said. “It’s where I’d draw a line in the sand as the important level to watch. If we were to break under there, and I think there’s a good possibility of that, I think shares could fall down to US$150.”
Krinsky agrees that US$170 is an important level for Nvidia shares and cautions that there could be pain ahead even though the stock is in an uptrend.
“It doesn’t strike me as an all-clear that we recovered the US$170 level so quickly,” he said. “If it moves back to that level and closes under it again, that would be a more telling signal that Nvidia is likely to continue lower.”
Both market technicians warn that it is difficult to make a directional call on Nvidia shares right now, especially with the macro pressures facing the broader market. The stock could just as easily continue trading sideways within range it’s been holding.
“We see US$165 as support and US$180 as resistance on a short-term basis” Dormeier said. “Until it breaks one of those levels, it will stand in the range. It will break out or break down. In the short term, we’ve seen it at least come back in off that end-of-quarter low.” BLOOMBERG
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