Airbus raises forecast for jet demand

[TOULOUSE, France] Airbus raised its 20-year forecast for jet demand on Wednesday, citing growth in emerging markets, with China on the brink of becoming the world's aviation powerhouse.

The European planemaker said it saw strong demand for wide-body long-distance jets as airport constraints force airlines to upgrade from smaller planes on some routes, and said it might speed up production plans for A330neo and A350 jets.

Airbus sees a total demand for 31,400 passenger and freighter aircraft between 2014 and 2033, an increase of 7 per cent from its previous rolling 20-year forecast. That would be equivalent to US$4.6 trillion of industry revenue at list prices.

During that time, the world's in-service fleet will double, and China is poised to displace North America as the world's largest domestic market within a decade, Airbus sales chief John Leahy said in an interview.

Airbus and US rival Boeing are the only manufacturers of wide-body, long-distance jets. They also dominate the market for single-aisle medium-haul aircraft with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 models.

Both manufacturers have opted to upgrade their popular small models with new engines to allow airlines to save fuel. Airbus staged the maiden flight of the revamped A320neo model at its Toulouse headquarters on Thursday.

Within the single-aisle category Airbus also expects airlines to shift gradually towards the largest member of the family, the A321neo, which seats up to 240 people. "Demand is shifting towards the A320 and A321, but it is also shifting out of single-aisle into wide-body," Mr Leahy noted. "If you are getting close to filling up any plane like the A321 you are spilling traffic."

Airbus nonetheless raised its demand forecast for single-aisle aircraft and predicted 22,000 deliveries of such jets in the next 20 years, up 9 per cent from its previous forecast.

Airbus, which has said it is studying plans to increase production of its A320 family to 50 aircraft a month from the current target of 46 a month in March 2016, expects to decide next year whether to aim for 50 a month "or more", Mr Leahy said. He told the Istat Europe air finance forum in Istanbul that the company would only raise production cautiously.

In the big-jet category, Airbus is looking at accelerating plans to produce a revamped version of its 250-300 seat A330, Mr Leahy said.

That would not necessarily mean greater overall A330 production - most analysts expect the reverse - but it would mean introducing the revised A330neo version more quickly. - Reuters