BYD, Geely results to provide pointers in China EV stock rivalry

[HONG KONG] Chinese electric vehicle stocks face a key test in upcoming results, which will offer clues for investors betting on the recently diverging performance of major players.

Shares of sector leader BYD have underperformed the recent sector rally, with its result due later Tuesday (Apr 28) expected to show a third-straight quarter of declining revenue. On the other hand, double-digit sales growth is expected at Geely Automobile Holdings, whose shares have soared ahead of its report scheduled for Wednesday.

Key points for investors include growth in overseas markets, and if it is helping offset weak demand and margin pressures in the domestic market. Short sellers have boosted bearish bets against BYD while paring wagers against Geely ahead of the results.

“The whole point of going aggressively after the overseas market is to make sure that margin expansion continues,” said Leonid Mironov, a portfolio manager at Gavekal Capital Limited. Domestically, Geely “hit the model refresh schedule perfectly and they were able to roll out updated facelifted models just as the competition on that front heated up. So in 2026, I think BYD is the one catching up on that front”.

The surge in oil prices due to the Iran war has driven gains in shares of EV and battery makers as alternative-energy plays. Yet performance has not been even, with BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares up about 12 per cent since the Middle East conflict started, while Geely’s have climbed 39 per cent.

Bearish bets are rising on BYD, with short interest as a percentage of free float at an around eight-month high of 6.5 per cent, according to data compiled by S3 Partners. Meanwhile, Geely’s short interest has come down to around 3.5 per cent from over 4 per cent last month.

Aside from Geely, Nio has also been among China EV stock leaders of late, thanks to its strong model momentum. XPeng has slumped on a weak quarterly revenue forecast, while poor smartphone business and slowing EV sales have weighed on Xiaomi.

China rivals

China’s automotive edge is in the spotlight at this week’s Beijing auto show, with plenty of new vehicles on display integrating artificial intelligence and other technologies. While these still are not available for purchase in the US, they are enjoying brisk sales in overseas markets.

The question is how much this can offset sluggish consumer spending and brutal competition that have taken a toll on EV maker earnings and share prices over the past few years. Average discounts for BYD cars accelerated to a record 10 per cent in March, according to China Auto Market data compiled by Bloomberg, with other brands also lowering prices.

SEE ALSO

EVs form about 60% of car registrations in Singapore; BYD accounts for nearly 1 in 4 new cars

BYD’s car discounts show China’s EV price war is getting worse

Aiming at China, Malaysia puts new restrictions on electric cars

China’s car exports accelerate despite disruption from Middle East crisis

BYD eyes more Porsche hires for luxury line’s Europe push

More

“I will be observing their profit margins and overseas revenue growth trends to determine if meaningful market share can be gained without price competition,” said Gerald Gan, chief investment officer at Reed Capital Partners. “If either of the two groups of metrics worsen, we may see another round of sell-off within the Chinese EV sector.”

BYD passed Tesla to become the world’s largest EV maker in 2025, but it’s now facing an increasingly tough rivalry with Geely at home. Geely expanded its China market share last year and edged ahead of BYD in sales during the first two months of 2026. BYD, which regained the lead in March, has refreshed its designs and upgraded its battery and charging technology.

“The electrification trade is entering a more selective phase, as a prolonged oil shock begins to weigh on broader consumer discretionary demand, including auto purchases,” said Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Investors are focused on which companies can “materially lower total cost of ownership” while also protecting margins. BLOOMBERG