Chinese carmakers may take more than 10% of US market if let in: study

CHINA-BASED automakers could sell as many 1.7 million cars a year in the US by 2038 if restrictions on their sales are eased, according to market research firm Mobility Global.

That would translate to about 11 per cent of the world’s second-largest market for new auto sales, according to one of several scenarios examined by the firm, which spun off from S&P Global in July.

Cars and trucks manufactured by Chinese companies today are effectively shut out of the US under current policies.

Mobility Global says there is a “low-to-moderate probability” that barriers will be lifted over the next decade for vehicles made in North America, Peter Nagle, the firm’s associate director of US vehicle forecasting, told reporters in Detroit on Wednesday. 

The estimate assumes imports directly from China remain effectively prohibited due to high US tariffs. 

“Chinese products are significantly more affordable” than other car brands, Nagle said. New compact and mid-sized crossovers from China-owned manufacturers sold in other countries cost about the same as the average used car in the US, he said. 

“It’s relatively attractive — on paper — for a US consumer,” he said.

But that would only be an option for Americans if US policymakers lift rules blocking cars with Chinese infotainment, mapping or other connected services.

President Donald Trump has also enacted punitive trade restrictions targeting imports from Canada and Mexico. There’s little indication those restrictions will be eased anytime soon, with some US lawmakers now pushing for even tougher rules to permanently ban Chinese cars.

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China’s automakers like BYD, Geely Automobile Holdings and SAIC Motor Corp. would likely seek to initially export to the US from plants in Mexico starting as soon as 2029, Nagle said.

The companies could then shift to production from new US factories in the next decade — once sales for popular models exceed about 40,000 vehicles a year.

Demand for those models could boost new car sales in the US by about 600,000 vehicles a year, he said, providing momentum for a market where total sales have remained largely flat in recent years.

Any inroads by Chinese brands in the US would come at the expense of carmakers already doing business in the market — to the tune of about one million vehicles a year, Nagle said. 

Most of the lost market share would likely be sustained by other Asian brands such as Nissan Motor, Hyundai Motor and Toyota Motor, he said. BLOOMBERG