JPMorgan upgrades Tesla to ‘neutral’, expects robotics to drive long-term growth

[BENGALURU] JPMorgan upgraded Elon Musk-led Tesla to “neutral” from “underweight” on Friday (Jun 5).

The bank cited that the electric-vehicle maker’s valuation is increasingly driven by its push into autonomous driving and robotics rather than near-term earnings.

The more optimistic view on Tesla comes as Musk pursues expansion across multiple technology ventures.

He is also taking SpaceX public in what could become the largest initial public offering on record, with a valuation of roughly US$1.7 trillion, and an expected market debut on Jun 12.

Investors are looking beyond Tesla’s slowing core EV business and focusing on future growth opportunities, including robotaxis, humanoid robots, AI chips and software services that could reshape the company’s earnings profile over the next decade, the brokerage said.

JPMorgan analysts led by Rajat Gupta, who took coverage of the stock in May, highlighted Tesla’s unmatched level of vertical integration across hardware and software.

“We believe this aspect is still somewhat under-appreciated and misunderstood, but for the sheer starting-point advantage it brings.”

Reflecting this optimism, JPMorgan hiked its price target on Tesla shares to US$475 from US$145.

The brokerage also estimates the company’s earnings per share (EPS) to “potentially inflect” beyond 2028 and jump nearly threefold to about US$7.50 by 2030, from roughly US$1.95 in 2026.

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Tesla reported adjusted first-quarter 2026 EPS of US$0.41.

Its shares were down marginally in early pre-market trade on Friday.

The company’s revenue is projected to more than double from about US$95 billion in 2025 to roughly US$203 billion by 2030, the brokerage said, with nearly half of that growth coming from services and newer businesses tied to autonomy and robotics.

Gupta values Tesla across five interlinked markets – automotive, energy storage, robotaxis, humanoid robots and infrastructure licensing, with a combined potential addressable market of about US$3.9 trillion by 2035.

The brokerage, however, warned that execution risks remain high, particularly around regulatory approvals, safety validation and scaling new technologies.

At least 24 analysts rate the stock “buy” or higher, 23 have a “hold” rating, and seven rate “sell” or lower, based on LSEG-compiled data. REUTERS