UOB closes 2.3% higher following Asia market rebound; Macquarie upgrades stock

[SINGAPORE] Shares of UOB rose on Thursday (Jan 22) after Macquarie upgraded its call on the lender and raised its target price.

The counter ended the day 2.3 per cent higher at S$37.62 – a nine-month high. The last time UOB shares traded higher was in April 2025, ShareInvestor data showed.

The local bank’s shares were up 1.7 per cent or S$0.64 higher at S$37.41 in early trade, reaching S$37.60 soon after. As at 3.18 pm, the counter traded at S$37.51, still up by 2 per cent, with close to four million shares changing hands.

In a Wednesday note, Macquarie analyst Jayden Vantarakis upgraded UOB to an “outperform” rating and lifted its target price to S$41, being 11.5 per cent over its latest closing price of S$36.77.

Vantarakis sees a potential “relative-value catch-up play” for UOB as headwinds are expected to abate this earnings season.

“Seasonal trends are a headwind for non-interest income. Lower rates are a double-edged sword, pressuring revenues in FY2026 but benefiting valuations,” he said.

Vantarakis highlighted that loan volumes have risen, as the latest banking statistics from the Monetary Authority of Singapore in November reflect a “sustained pickup in lending”. This comes as interest rates are expected to continue trending downwards on Singapore dollar strength and US dollar weakness.

“Whilst we expect some slowdown (for loan volume) in FY2026 to reflect front-loading impacts for manufacturing and exports, this sets a positive base for (the year’s estimated) loan momentum,” he said.

Vantakaris forecasts UOB’s quarterly provisions normalising after taking large one-off provisions in the third quarter, given that the bank has topped up allowances and as rate movements should be “marginally supportive of collateral values”.

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Macquarie noted that quarter-on-quarter momentum for Q4 FY2025’s estimated profit after tax and minority interests could be affected by how Singapore banks have recorded lower trading and other non-interest income over the past five years, but UOB could benefit from a lower base in Q3 FY2025.

While major US banks recently reported a quarter-on-quarter decline in overall wealth assets by 2 per cent, Singapore banks are expected to do better on wealth asset under management inflows, he added, given that the relative “safe-haven” status of the city-state’s banking sector.

However, earnings growth is expected to remain lacklustre in FY2026, which may present headwinds, Vantakaris said.

UOB will be releasing its full-year financial results for FY2025 on Feb 24.