Upcoming earnings season expected to be pivotal for tech-heavy Nasdaq
THE Nasdaq 100 has been climbing within a well-defined ascending channel since May 2025, repeatedly rebounding off the lower trendline with each dip, thereby extending its bull run.
The channel has carried the index from 21,000 in late May to recent highs near 25,200 in October. This steady uptrend suggests that as long as the Nasdaq holds above the channel floor, its rally can continue.
Within this rally, the index pulled back to about 24,200 on Oct 10 at the channel’s lower boundary and near the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the August-October swing. The pullback then tested the lower channel and rebounded, aligning with short-term supports and reaffirming the channel’s validity. The index remains above its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA), and well above the 100-day SMA, all consistent with a bullish bias.
With the index rallying within the ascending channel and repeatedly finding support at the lower trendline, near-term resistance is seen at around 25,200 to 25,300, with the channel ceiling near 25,800 to 26,000 serving as the next major upside target. A clear breakout above 25,200 could ignite renewed bullish momentum.
Immediate support lies at the channel floor (24,800), followed by the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the August-October swing (24,600), and the 50-day SMA (24,250). The 50-day and 100-day SMA levels have proven to be reliable support references for the index, with the 100-day SMA trending towards the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement near the 23,650 zone, a level that could act as a significant support.
Beyond technical levels, several catalysts could influence the Nasdaq 100 in the coming weeks. The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, affecting growth and complicating policy decisions. Lost federal wages/contracts will also increasingly weigh on the economy.
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On monetary policy, the Fed’s upcoming Oct 28-29 meeting is widely expected to announce a 25 bps rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to roughly 3.75-4 per cent. This dovish move would likely support market sentiment and risk assets.
Meanwhile, US-China trade relations remain in focus. Tensions spiked in early October after China restricted rare earth exports, but an anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping at the Apec summit in late October could provide a turning point. Any signs of a thaw could boost sentiment, whereas renewed discord would be a headwind.
Finally, the upcoming earnings season will be pivotal for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Nearly all the members of the “Magnificent Seven” are due to report in late October and early November, following Tesla’s slightly disappointing results. While Big Tech generally beats estimates this year, any ordinary or disappointing results could prompt profit-taking after the sustained rally. In contrast, another round of robust earnings could reinforce the bullish momentum and extend the rally further.
The writer is manager of dealing and investor education at Phillip Securities
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