US dollar tumbles as Fed hike seen as its last; markets await ECB

THE US dollar extended losses on Thursday (Jul 27), a day after the Federal Reserve delivered what some expect to be its last rate hike, while the market’s focus shifted across the Atlantic to the European Central Bank’s impending rate announcement.

The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected, marking its 11th rate increase in its last 12 meetings.

While Fed chair Jerome Powell left the door open to another hike in September, traders appeared unconvinced and the US dollar extended Wednesday’s modest post-meeting 0.3 per cent drop.

“The market considers that it is likely the series of rate hikes we’ve had are over now,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, was last down 0.5 per cent at 100.60.

“(The) US is closer to the end of the hiking cycle than its peers. A dovish pivot from the Fed will likely exert downward pressure on the US dollar in the medium term,” said Emin Hajiyev, senior economist at Insight Investment.

The ECB comes under the spotlight next, with investors expecting the central bank to similarly raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, with the focus on its forward guidance and expectations for September.

Ahead of the decision, the euro gained 0.5 per cent to US$1.1144.

“The market has been positioned for the ECB to hike in September,” Rabobank’s Foley said.

“If the probability of a September move is even slightly diminished relative to what the market had been expecting, the euro could be a little less robust.”

The Japanese yen, meanwhile, was 0.1 per cent higher against the US dollar at 140.17.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announces its monetary policy decision on Friday, and is largely seen maintaining its ultra-loose policy stance, although a tweak to its yield curve control policy remains a possibility.

Against the weaker US dollar, the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened, as prospects that the global monetary tightening cycle could soon be ending boosted sentiment.

The New Zealand dollar was 0.6 per cent higher at US$0.6252, having earlier surged more than 1 per cent to a one-week high of US$0.6274.

The Aussie similarly jumped nearly 1 per cent to a one-week top of US$0.6821.

Sterling touched a one-week high of US$1.2995 earlier in the session and was last 0.2 per cent higher, while the US dollar fell to an 8-1/2 year low against the Swiss franc of 0.8554.

China’s yuan edged higher in the offshore market, rising to a peak of 7.1170 per US dollar, its strongest level since mid-June. It was last up 0.1 per cent at 7.1449 per US dollar.

China’s industrial profits extended this year’s double-digit pace of declines into a sixth month, data on Thursday showed, bolstering the case for further policy support to aid the economy. REUTERS