Where will the group go from here?

Singapore

WHAT a nerve-wracking month it has been for Noble Group. First a shock first-quarter loss. Then Sinochem reportedly walking away from a near deal, followed by yet another round of downgrades by credit rating agencies.

Now, the group has been thrown a lifeline with the extension of a US$2 billion credit facility that would have otherwise expired by the end of this week. But this brings only brief respite. Where will the beleaguered commodity trader - once the largest in Asia by revenue - go from here?

Three scenarios present themselves: restructuring and downsizing, having a white knight come to the rescue, or liquidation.

For some time now, commentators such as Muddy Waters founder Carson Block have been saying that restructuring is an inevitable path for Noble to take. That appeared to be the company's thinking too, when it brought on Paul Brough, a restructuring veteran who helped liqui…