All eyes on how Opec+ will play its chips on oil supply at crucial meeting

AS CRUDE prices hit the roof over fears of a supply crunch amid the escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis, all eyes are on the ministerial meeting of the oil cartel on Wednesday (Mar 2). The big question - will the influential grouping of petro nations stick to the pre-agreed gradual output hike or will they decide to pump even more oil as pressure from the West to do so builds up?

Even as analysts reckon that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies (Opec+) can't afford to sit tight as crude prices blow up and may be tempted to release more barrels into the market, most expect the cartel to ultimately take the cautious route and continue its pact with Russia for gradual supply resumption. But if it doesn't, it will come as a big surprise to the market and could tamp down soaring oil prices.

"Opec+ has a difficult decision to make this week. There is plenty of uncertainty over oil supply, given the sanction risk for Russian oil. We believe that Opec+ will take a cautious approach by evaluating the full potential impact before deviating away from their current deal. Therefore, we are of the view that the group will increase output by 400,000 barrels per day in April, which is likely already priced into the market", said Warren Patterson, ING's commodities strategy head.