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JPMorgan raises 2020 oil price view on Opec+ cuts, improved economic outlook
[BENGALURU] JPMorgan on Tuesday raised its oil price outlook and forecast supply-demand balance to tighten next year against the backdrop of the Opec and its allies increasing output cuts and stronger economic growth in emerging markets.
The investment bank revised its Brent price forecast to US$64.5 per barrel in 2020 from US$59 earlier, although it expects prices to slip to US$61.50 in 2021.
West Texas Intermediate prices are seen following a similar trajectory with prices averaging US$60 per barrel in 2020 and US$57.50 in 2021, JPMorgan said.
The end of UK electoral uncertainty and the US-China trade truce along with fading of idiosyncratic headwinds in some of the larger emerging markets economies have improved the global growth outlook for next year, the bank said.
"In contrast to our September forecast that the global oil market will be in surplus of 0.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) on average for 2020, we now estimate the market will be in deficit of 0.2 mbpd," the bank said.
JPMorgan continues to expect global oil demand growth at 1 mbpd. The Opec, Russia and other producers, a group known as Opec+, have agreed to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020.
Oil prices remained near a three-month high on Tuesday on hopes that a full-fledged US-China trade deal is in the pipeline and set to stoke oil demand in the world's biggest economies.