Singapore's net zero emissions target by 2050 for power sector 'technically viable', 'realistic': report

AS an "alternative energy-disadvantaged" country, Singapore is expected to bank on electricity imports and low-carbon hydrogen as it embarks on the path to decarbonise and hit net-zero emissions by mid-century, according to a latest energy market report.

While the potential supply mix - this will also include geothermal and solar power - varies depending on how the energy landscape evolves globally, the Energy 2050 Committee report commissioned by the Energy Market Authority (EMA) concluded that it is both "technically viable" and "realistic" for Singapore's power sector to achieve net-zero emissions by the timeline it has set for itself.

The more-than-50-page report, released on Tuesday (Mar 22), was prepared by a committee tasked with examining Singapore's long-term energy sector trends. It also includes recommendations on how the EMA, the industry regulator, should plan for the country's future energy system and how the city-state can tap economic opportunities arising from the transition.

"The Committee has concluded that it is realistic for Singapore's power sector to aspire to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 while still maintaining energy security and affordability. To do so, however, it must be prepared to make bold changes along the way based on technology trends...," said Choi Shing Kwok, chairman of the Energy 2050 Committee.

He added that the committee sees good prospects for Singapore to capture economic growth opportunities from the energy transition in the region and beyond. "Power sector solutions can become an important pillar of Singapore's green growth engine if it can establish itself as a technology frontrunner and a living lab for sustainable energy solutions," he continued.

Decarbonising the power sector is a key part of Singapore's green journey as the sector accounts for a sizeable share of the city-state's overall emissions.

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The report highlighted 3 "pre-determined" trends that will impact the Republic's green transition in the sector in the coming decades - rising electricity demand led by economic growth, digitalisation and electrification of transport; cheaper and efficient solar power and battery energy storage systems (ESS) driven by research and development efforts and economies of scale; and the "inevitable" proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar, battery ESS and electric vehicles, which will warrant a multi-layered grid with digital technologies for a secure and optimised system.

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"Our study confirms that the energy transition over the next 30 years will be complex, with uncertainties around the optimal options that will be available to Singapore...it is not possible to craft a single definitive long-term strategy today. Instead, Singapore will have to stay nimble...," said Choi.

The report focused on a scenario-based approach for Singapore to steer the energy sector in 2050, depending on the pace of how low-carbon energy technologies such as hydrogen as well as new geothermal and nuclear technologies advance and are deployed globally, which it deemed "critical uncertainties".

Scenario 1: If energy and digital technologies develop rapidly and are complemented by strong global cooperation, Singapore will have a diversified supply mix in 2050, with electricity imports and low-carbon hydrogen as major contributors, accounting for 40 per cent share each of the power generation needs. Geothermal and solar will also be added to the mix as domestic renewable generation sources. In this scenario, Singapore develops an intelligent grid capable of maintaining system stability and reliability amid the proliferation of DERs.

Scenario 2: In the event of a "climate action bloc" where countries band together as technology advancements stagnate, Singapore will have to rely heavily on electricity imports - some 60 per cent of the supply mix - to meet its needs, with hydrogen accounting for a relatively small share of some 10 per cent owing to high costs. A wider regional grid and trading platform will need to be developed to meet the needs of the entire region, which in turn will spawn economic benefits.

Scenario 3: Technology advancement is delayed but eventually happens. In such an event, low-carbon hydrogen could likely dominate and make up more than half of Singapore's supply mix, replacing natural gas as the main fuel source. Electricity imports will make up a smaller portion or 25 per cent of the mix due to slow development of the regional grid and interconnections.

The committee has made several recommendations for Singapore's power sector to achieve net zero. These include the need for the country to prioritise importing renewable electricity and to ensure supply security, to develop a "diversified portfolio of import partners supported by a regional grid and trading platform, as well as cost-efficient back-up options".

Singapore should also develop a national hydrogen strategy and work with local and international stakeholders to develop a robust hydrogen supply chain, including investing in infrastructure as needed. While mitigation is the primary pathway, the city-state should also leverage carbon markets to address residual and hard-to-abate carbon.

The committee has also recommended that Singapore create a multi-layered grid to manage the growth of DERs and improve grid reliability.

The report added: "The energy transition will be highly dynamic given the uncertainty of technology and geo-economic trends. It will be especially challenging for a small, densely populated, and alternative energy-disadvantaged country such as Singapore as it balances the energy trilemma to deliver sustainable, secure, and affordable energy.

"This major energy transition will invariably involve trade-offs which Singapore has to carefully manage. This would inevitably result in an increase in cost, but it is unavoidable if Singapore wants to make the energy system more sustainable and secure in a carbon-constrained future."