Achieving ‘peak plastics’ by 2050 requires bold moves on bans, taxes, recycling all at once
THE world’s governments must agree to aggressively tax single-use plastics, mandate that producers share the burden of recycling, and tax virgin resin or the world will not achieve “peak plastics” by mid-century, said a study by ocean science organisation Back to Blue.
Those three approaches currently lie at the centre of negotiations on a possible United Nations (UN) treaty to end plastic pollution that is expected to be in place by end-2024. The study, backed by the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, set out to examine the potential impact of each of these policies. Back to Blue is an initiative of Economist Impact and The Nippon Foundation.
The study used 2019 consumption levels as a baseline. The analysis found that plastic consumption among G20 countries will nearly double by 2050 in the absence of all three strategies.
A global ban on single-use plastic products (SUPP) would be the most effective of the three approaches, with the potential to lower consumption in the G20 countries to 1.48 times 2019 levels in 2050. But consumption would still be rising, and ban rates – which would have hit 20 per cent of plastic waste volume in France, Germany, Italy, Australia and China under this scenario – would need to be much more aggressive to stem or reverse consumption growth, the study found.
The least impactful approach was extended producer responsibility (EPR) – the industry term for policies that place the onus on packaging producers and industrial consumers to collect, sort and deliver the plastic packaging they produce or use for eventual recycling. Even with the “ambitious” assumption that mandatory EPR rules are strictly enforced, the study found that consumption would be 1.66 times higher with EPR alone. This is barely lower than the baseline of 1.73 times if no policies are implemented.
The third approach of imposing a tax on virgin fossil-derived feedstock in the upstream production of plastic will, on its own, lead to consumption rising 1.57 times.
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Yet, even if all three policies were enacted according to the standards drawn out, plastic use will still fail to peak by 2050 – consumption would only have been lowered to 1.25 times above 2019 levels, at 325 million tonnes.
Faster, steeper, higher
With this, Back to Blue spoke of a “considerable possibility” that the UN treaty will be too weak to reverse the plastic tide by mid-century, unless the policies were rolled out in a more stringent manner than imagined.
The report suggested that this could mean that the phasing of SUPP bans in countries will likely need to be faster and on a steeper trajectory, or that the plastic tax for upstream producers will need to be higher.
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Such measures will, however, likely encounter opposition from producers, retailers, industry bodies, consumer groups and other actors. Noting this, Back to Blue said this makes it all the more important that the treaty also addresses monitoring and enforcement.
For example, EPR schemes in low-income countries will need to be closely monitored at city and regional levels to ensure that all the funds generated flow into circularity-building efforts.
Bans must also be enacted at the highest government level possible to guard against backtracking that results in plastic leakage from some localities to others, it added.
“Experience suggests that numerous potential loopholes could undercut the achievement of targets,” it said, adding: “There are countries and stakeholders that wish to push for a bottom-up approach based on national action plans, or those that would prefer to not have clear targets and obligations within the treaty.”
Calibration is also complex. The study noted that bans, taxes and price increases need to distinguish between unnecessary plastics and those that are useful to society, such as for medical applications. The treaty must also guard against an “undue burden from such interventions falling on consumers in low-income countries”.
Indeed, parties were split at the first meeting after February 2022’s historic resolution to develop the treaty.
Reuters reported a lack of agreement around whether the goals and efforts should be global and mandatory, or voluntary and country-led in the meet attended by more than 2,000 delegates from 160 countries between Nov 28 and Dec 2 in 2022 in Uruguay.
Four more of these meets were planned, with the next set to take place in Paris, France from May 29 to Jun 2.
Moving forward, Back to Blue stressed there should be no illusions that the treaty negotiations will be anything but difficult and possibly treacherous. “Negotiators must nevertheless succeed, as there may never be as much goodwill as there exists now among the different stakeholders to achieve a breakthrough,” it said.
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