China climate experts see top polluter beating emissions goal
[WASHINGTON] A majority of experts on China’s climate and energy policies expect the world’s top polluter to outperform fresh emissions-reduction targets that have been criticised as too timid, according to a new study.
The survey of 68 experts – the majority of whom are based in China – found 47 of them expect Asia’s largest economy to surpass a new goal outlined by President Xi Jinping in September, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) and International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS) said on Thursday (Nov 6).
China pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 per cent from peak levels by 2035, setting targets for the first time that address pollutants beyond carbon dioxide and which are based on total volumes, rather than intensity metrics.
Even so, the strategy has been assessed as unambitious by analysts. For example, carbon emissions from fuel combustion are likely to fall by 37 per cent over the next decade, even under a scenario that assumes no further policy support and market-driven clean technology deployment, according to BloombergNEF.
“Most experts in China see it as very conservative and expect it to be overachieved,” said Belinda Schape, a China policy analyst at Crea and co-author of the new report.
China accounts for almost 30 per cent of global emissions, meaning the speed at which it can reduce pollution has huge ramifications for efforts to limit global warming.
“The question is no longer whether China can peak emissions before 2030, but how to keep the plateau short and move quickly into structural decline,” said Xunpeng Shi, a professor at University of Technology Sydney and a founding member of ISETS. “Further progress hinges on accelerating power sector reforms, advancing deep electrification, and strengthening financial coordination.”
Respondents to the survey were less optimistic on the immediate path for China’s carbon emissions. Only 18 per cent of experts indicated the nation’s peak level will be reached this year or has already been achieved, compared with 44 per cent of those canvassed in a similar study in 2024.
“There are quite a lot of concerns that more economic stimulus may be needed to meet the economic challenges, and that could then result in emissions growth,” Schape said. BLOOMBERG
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