China emissions hit a record even with peak carbon in sight

CHINA’S carbon dioxide emissions rose to a new record even as surging clean power additions put the nation on a path to hit peak pollution years earlier than expected.

Carbon emissions in the second quarter jumped 10 per cent on last year’s coronavirus-induced lull and were above the total in the same period of 2021, according to an analysis for Carbon Brief by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Much of that increase was due to a surge in coal power generation needed to offset weak hydropower output after a historic drought last summer.

Yet the shift from hydro-to-coal could prove temporary with Chinese officials recently explaining that after water conservation efforts and recent heavy rainfall, the country’s massive dams produced a record amount of electricity in July. Booming solar and wind power installations are also at a level at which they can likely meet rising energy demand on their own, according to the report.

“If low-carbon capacity growth meets forecasts, it would be sufficient to cover expected electricity demand growth and could even put China on track to peak its emissions within two years,” CREA analysts Lauri Myllyvirta and Qi Qin said in the report.

President Xi Jinping in July called for greater efforts from the world’s top polluting nation to meet climate targets that call for China to peak emissions before 2030 and hit net zero by 2060.

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Questions do remain over the trajectory of China’s emissions because of a massive fleet of new coal power plants currently under construction and whether the facilities will be used, as officials have insisted, predominantly as a backup power source, the analysts said. BLOOMBERG