Chinese climate experts more confident of early emissions peak

CHINESE climate experts have grown more confident the nation will peak carbon emissions years ahead of the government’s 2030 target due to a flood of new clean energy projects.

About 44 per cent of those surveyed by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) think emissions have already peaked or will by 2025, the group said in a report released on Wednesday (Nov 27). That was up from 21 per cent of responses to the same question last year. The increased optimism extended across sectors, with more respondents expecting earlier peaks in power, heavy industry and transportation than in 2023.

The improved outlook comes after record installations of clean energy last year helped meet most of the increase in power demand, limiting the amount of extra coal generation needed in the system. A weaker economy has also slowed cement and steel output, helping China stabilise emissions after years of rapid growth.

Renewable power and electric vehicle booms continued in China this year, but energy consumption is still growing rapidly, Crea lead analyst Lauri Myllyvyrta said. That limits the country’s ability to start reducing emissions fast enough to help the world avoid the worst impacts of climate change, he said.

“China will need to either speed up renewable energy deployment even further or guide economic development in a less energy-intensive direction,” Myllyvyrta said.

Crea, an independent research organisation, surveyed 44 China climate experts across academia and industry. BLOOMBERG