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Commodities slump set to continue

Prices are unlikely to rebound amid excess supplies, says Goldman Sachs, while Morgan Stanley sees oil dropping to as low as US$35 a barrel

New York

EVEN with commodities mired in the worst slump in a generation, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc are warning bulls that prices may stay lower for years.

Crude oil and copper are unlikely to rebound because of excess supplies, Goldman predicts, and Morgan Stanley forecasts that weaker currencies in producing countries will encourage robust output of raw materials sold for US dollars, even during bear markets. Citigroup says the sluggish world economy makes it "hard to argue" that most prices have already bottomed.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index on Sept 30 capped its worst quarterly loss since the depths of the recession in 2008.

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