INDONESIA has one of the strongest structural stories in Asean, and we think 2015 likely marked the floor to growth. Our base case for this year is for a mild growth recovery to 5 per cent from 4.8 per cent in 2015. Given the tepid external environment - Morgan Stanley's global economics team expects global GDP growth to decelerate from 3.1 per cent in 2015 to 3 per cent in 2016 - we think fiscal policy is what's needed to lend growth alpha in Indonesia in this cycle.
However, the year-to-date fiscal revenue shortfall and its implications for government expenditure, as well as mixed trends in high-frequency macro indicators, have led to concerns about whether Indonesia's growth recovery is in...
Keyword added to your list