The yield curve explained: Is it predicting recession?

SINCE 1980 the yield curve has accurately predicted the last five US recessions. After nearly a decade of economic expansion, is it telling us that another one is on its way in 2019?

The yield curve has been a reliable predictor of US recessions over the last four decades. Each time the yield curve has inverted, the US economy has entered a downturn within 18 months. At the start of 2019, the curve is precipitously close to inverting again.

The yield curve is the difference between the interest rate on a longer-dated bond (debt issued by a corporation or country) and a shorter-dated bond.