Treasuries record shows bears will lose
Economists and strategists stick to their calls that yields will rise as Fed prepares to raise rates
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IF you're convinced the plummet in yields on US government bonds is an aberration, it may be because you haven't been in the business long enough. With the longest-dated Treasuries now yielding less than half the 6.8 per cent average over the past five decades, it's not hard to see why forecasters say they're bound to rise as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates following the most aggressive stimulus measures in its 100-year history.
Yet compared with levels that prevailed in the half-century before that, yields are in line with the norm.
For David Jones, former vice-chairman at Aubrey G Lanston & Co and a 51-year bond veteran, the notion that Treasury yields are too low is being shaped by traders, money managers and economists who began their careers in the wake of runaway inflation surpassing 10 per cent in the 1970s and 1980s.
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