Why the US election cycle weighs on Wall Street

New York

AMONG the many rationales given for the drubbing in US equities this year, one that is rarely mentioned is the election cycle. Maybe, it should be.

Research from Ned Davis Research Group shows that the last year of a two-term presidency ranks dead last by returns, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index posting a median decline of 6.6 per cent since 1953. Coincidentally or not, with President Barack Obama preparing for his final months in office, shares are off to the worst start since 2009, sinking 5.1 percent in January.