APAC aviation markets to account for half of global air traffic by 2040: Boeing

BOEING estimates that air travel within Asia-Pacific markets will account for nearly half of global air traffic by 2040, driving a 20-year demand for over 17,000 new planes valued at US$3.1 trillion.

With travel recovery enabled by a rising rate of vaccination against Covid-19, Asia-Pacific carriers are well-positioned to capitalise on recovering business and leisure travel as well as air cargo transportation, the American planemaker said in its long-term forecast of demand for commercial planes and services.

To support the commercial aviation industry, Asia-Pacific countries will also require after-market services valued at US$3.7 trillion, Boeing forecasts.

"We have seen strong resilience in Asia-Pacific traffic when restrictions are lifted and passengers feel confident about travel," said Darren Hulst, Boeing's vice-president of commercial marketing, in a press statement on Tuesday (Nov 9).

"Carriers with efficient and versatile fleets will be positioned to meet passenger needs and air freight demand with airplanes that reduce fuel use, emissions and operating costs," he noted.

The Asia-Pacific region has diverse air travel markets, including mature economies in North-east Asia and Oceania, as well as rapidly growing aviation markets in China, South Asia and South-east Asia.

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Boeing's forecast addresses demand for the 5 regions within the Asia-Pacific through 2040.

It sees South-east Asian countries' rapid economic growth to log fleet growth and passenger traffic well above global averages. Low-cost carriers are forecast to expand intra-regional networks with single-aisle jets, while open skies and trade agreements will enable carriers to invest in fuel-efficient widebodies to serve long-haul routes.

According to Boeing, South-east Asia is forecast to need 4,465 new airplanes valued at US$765 billion, and commercial aviation services valued at US$790 billion by 2040.

In North-east Asia, mature economies will continue to support a balanced air travel market across domestic, regional and long-haul travel segments. Fleet replacement will account for nearly 75 per cent of new deliveries as airlines look to improve sustainability and fleet versatility.

The region is expected to need 1,385 new airplanes valued at US$310 billion, as well as services valued at US$555 billion in the next 20 years.

In Oceania, commercial aviation serves as critical transportation infrastructure across long distances and island-nations. Domestic and regional travel accounting for 80 per cent of passenger traffic will drive single-aisle demand, while versatile widebody jets such as the 787 Dreamliner will support long-haul and international network development.

Oceania is projected to need 785 new jets valued at US$135 billion, and services valued at US$165 billion by the end of the forecast period.

Boeing said single-aisle jets will account for nearly 13,500 deliveries, about three-quarters of demand in terms of units. In contrast, widebody jets including passenger and cargo models, will total nearly 3,800 airplanes.

The cargo fleet will more than triple to 1,160 airplanes, including new and converted models, to support diversifying global supply chains and meet e-commerce demand, the American planemaker forecasts.

The Asia-Pacific cargo fleet is expected to roughly equal North America's cargo fleet by 2040.

Boeing further sees that demand for maintenance, repair, overhaul and modifications will account for a majority of projected commercial aviation services demand. Digital solutions, analytics and training services also will support the Asia-Pacific fleet.

Airline crew, Boeing stated, for Asia-Pacific's requirements through 2040, will consist of nearly 820,000 new aviation personnel, including more than 230,000 pilots, nearly 250,000 technicians and 340,000 cabin crew members.