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Analysts in maiden SMU survey see US and euro zone in recession by 2022

THE risks to growth for the five biggest economies in the world are tilted to the downside with the US and euro zone likely to be in recession by 2022, according to a survey of analysts by the Singapore Management University (SMU) released on Wednesday.

The first edition of the Big5 survey, which was released by the Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) at SMU, gathers participants’ sentiments and projections for the economies of China, Europe, India, Japan and the United States.

The eight participants in its inaugural survey are Bank of Singapore, DBS Group, GIC, ING Bank, Moody’s Investors Service, TD Securities, UBS and United Overseas Bank Group.

Six out of eight participants are expecting the euro zone to enter into a recession by 2021, while only three in eight see the same for the US.

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However, seven in eight forecast that both the US and the euro area will be in recession by 2022.

In contrast, only two in eight participants foresee a “sharp slowdown” in China and India by 2021.

The outlook for both countries remain similar in 2022, with only three in eight expecting a “sharp slowdown” for China, and no change in expectation for India.