Biden leads Trump narrowly in Florida on eve of election: Reuters/Ipsos

[WASHINGTON] Democrat Joe Biden appeared to take a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Florida in the final days of the 2020 US election campaign, with the two candidates locked in a dead heat in North Carolina and Arizona, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls released on Monday.

A week earlier, Reuters/Ipsos polls showed Mr Trump and Mr Biden in a statistical tie across the three states.

A final Reuters/Ipsos national poll showed Mr Biden with an outright majority among all likely voters: 52 per cent said they were backing the Democratic nominee while 44 per cent said they were voting for the Republican Trump.

The national poll, conducted from Oct 29 to Nov 2, gathered responses from 1,333 adults, including 914 likely voters. The national poll has a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

Reuters/Ipsos also polled likely voters in six states - Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - that will play critical roles in deciding whether Mr Trump wins a second term in office or if Mr Biden ousts him.

Below is a state-by-state look at Reuters/Ipsos findings, based on the online responses of likely voters:

FLORIDA (OCT 27 - NOV 1)

Voting for Mr Biden: 50 per cent. Voting for Mr Trump: 46 per cent.

A prior poll showed Mr Biden leading Mr Trump 49 per cent to 47 per cent, effectively a tie because the margin was within the poll's credibility interval.

- 41 per cent said they already had voted.

- 47 per cent said Mr Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44 per cent said Mr Trump would be better.

- 53 per cent said Mr Trump would be better at managing the economy.

42 per cent said Mr Biden would be better.

ARIZONA (OCT 27 - NOV 1)

- Voting for Mr Biden: 49 per cent. Voting for Mr Trump: 47 per cent. The two are statistically tied as the margin is within the survey's credibility interval.

- A prior poll also showed a statistically even race, with 48 per cent for Mr Biden and 46 per cent for Mr Trump.

- 49 per cent said they already had voted.

- 49 per cent said Mr Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 41 per cent said Mr Trump would be better.

- 52 per cent said Mr Trump would be better at managing the economy.

42 per cent said Mr Biden would be better.

NORTH CAROLINA (Oct 27 - Nov 1)

Voting for Mr Biden: 49 per cent. Voting for Mr Trump: 48 per cent.

Since the margin is within the poll's credibility interval, the race is statistically tied, as it was in the prior poll when Mr Biden had 49 per cent to Mr Trump's 48 per cent.

- 43 per cent said they already had voted.

- 49 per cent said Mr Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 43 per cent said Mr Trump would be better.

- 51 per cent said Mr Trump would be better at managing the economy.

43 per cent said Mr Biden would be better.

MICHIGAN (OCT 27 - NOV 1)

Voting for Mr Biden: 52 per cent. Voting for Mr Trump: 42 per cent. Mr Biden was up 52 per cent to 43 per cent the prior week.

- 37 per cent of adults said they already had voted.

- 52 per cent said Mr Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 40 per cent said Mr Trump would be better.

- 48 per cent said Mr Trump would be better at managing the economy.

44 per cent said Mr Biden would be better.

WISCONSIN (Oct 27 - Nov 1):

Voting for Mr Biden: 53 per cent. Voting for Mr Trump: 43 per cent. Mr Biden was up 53 per cent to 44 per cent the prior week.

- 41 per cent of adults said they already had voted.

- 52 per cent said Mr Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 38 per cent said Mr Trump would be better.

- 47 per cent said Mr Trump would be better at managing the economy.

45 per cent said Mr Biden would be better.

PENNSYLVANIA (OCT 27 - NOV 1)

Voting for Mr Biden: 51 per cent. Voting for Mr Trump: 44 per cent. Mr Biden was up 50 to 45 per cent the prior week.

- 25 per cent of adults said they already had voted.

- 51 per cent said Mr Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 40 per cent said Mr Trump would be better.

- 48 per cent said Mr Trump would be better at managing the economy. 46 per cent said Mr Biden would be better.

The Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls are conducted online in all six states in English, as well as in Spanish in Arizona and Florida.

- In Florida, from Oct 27 to Nov 1, it gathered responses from 1,011 adults, including 670 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

- In Arizona, from Oct 27 to Nov 1, it gathered responses from 989 adults, including 610 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

- In North Carolina, from Oct 27 to Nov 1, it gathered responses from 1,009 adults, including 707 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

- In Michigan, from Oct 27 to Nov 1, it gathered responses from 1,007 adults, including 654 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

- In Wisconsin, from Oct 27 to Nov 1, it gathered responses from 1,007 adults, including 696 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

- In Pennsylvania, from Oct 27 to Nov 1, it gathered responses from 1,006 adults, including 673 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

REUTERS