Citizen labour trends track those of residents, outcomes good over past decade: MOM data

LABOUR statistics relating to Singapore citizens track closely those for all residents - that is, citizens as well as permanent residents (PRs) - according to data in an occasional paper released by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) on Thursday.

For instance, after coming down from 4.7 per cent in 2009, the seasonally adjusted citizen unemployment rate has ranged between 2.9 per cent and 3.3 per cent in the period from 2010 to 2019, averaging 3.1 per cent. The resident unemployment rate, coming down from 4.5 per cent in 2009, ranged between 2.8 per cent and 3.1 per cent. The citizen and resident rates differed by no more than 0.2 percentage point in any year in the period.

The paper shows that employment outcomes of Singapore citizens have been positive over the decade, with rising employment rates, a rising share of professionals, managers, executives and technicians (PMETs), and faster income growth in the latter half of the decade, said the MOM.

The release of the paper follows a parliamentary exchange earlier in January in which Workers' Party Member of Parliament Pritam Singh asked for employment data pertaining to Singaporean citizens specifically, as distinct from PRs, for jobs created in industries covered by industry transformation maps - as well as more generally. Official data releases usually present resident data.

Citizens form about 85 per cent of the resident labour force, and the PR population has stayed stable over time at about 0.5 million, noted the MOM in its occasional paper. "These two facts taken together means that for the most part, resident data mirrors citizen data, and having citizen data in addition to resident data provides little additional information."

Other countries also typically release statistics covering the resident population rather than citizens alone, said the MOM.

The occasional paper gave resident and citizen statistics across indicators for employment, income growth, retrenchments and unemployment, over the last decade.

Comparing employment rates for those aged 15 and older, the citizen employment rate has been within 1.7 percentage points of the resident rate since 2009. The rates were 63.6 per cent for citizens and 65.2 per cent for residents in 2019.

The proportion of PMETs among the employed has risen similarly in both groups over the decade, to 55.8 per cent of employed citizens and 58.3 per cent of employed residents.

The median gross monthly income from work has grown for both full-time employed citizens and residents over the decade. Real median income growth for citizens was 3.9 per cent per year from June 2014 to June 2019, up from 2.1 per cent per year over the preceding five years. For residents, the growth rates were 3.8 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively.

Retrenchment incidence was higher among residents than among citizens specifically. From 2012 - the first year in which retrenchment data was collected with a breakdown for citizens specifically - till 2018, the number of retrenched employees per every 1,000 employees fluctuated between 5.4 and 8.6 for residents, and between 5.0 and 7.6 for citizens.

Statistically, unemployment figures refer to jobless persons who are seeking and available for work, and exclude those who are not searching for jobs. Alongside these unemployment figures, the occasional paper also looked at discouraged workers, defined as those who are not searching for jobs because they believe their job search will not yield results.

The number of discouraged workers has declined since 2009, to 6,700 citizens in June 2019, representing 0.3 per cent of the citizen labour force. Including PRs, the resident figure was 7,500, or 0.3 per cent of the resident labour force. The citizen and resident percentages of discouraged workers have not differed by more than 0.1 percentage point since 2009.

The last occasional paper on Singapore citizens in the labour force was released in 2011. The new occasional paper is a follow up to the 2011 release, said Manpower Minister Josephine Teo in a Facebook post on Thursday.

Noting recent "heightened interest about data that the government releases", she said: "You may ask why we don't usually break down resident data further into SC (Singapore citizens) and PRs? There is no sinister reason.

"Internationally, statistical agencies cover the entire population residing in their country without a breakdown by nationality. The aim is comprehensive data coverage, so that analyses and comparison are accurate and meaningful."

Apart from the fact that citizens make up a large majority of the resident labour force and the PR population is relatively small and stable, she also noted that PRs "typically have to demonstrate high degrees of employability before being granted residency".

The PR population does not have a significant impact on labour trends, and presenting more data sets will provide little additional information, she said. "Nonetheless, over longer time periods, it is useful to take a closer look at citizen data in a holistic way, which is the purpose of such occasional papers."