Covid-19 pandemic 'over by June' if countries act: China senior medical adviser

Beijing

THE global novel coronavirus pandemic could be over by June if countries mobilise to fight it, Beijing's senior medical officer has said.

On Thursday, China declared the peak had passed there, and new cases in Hubei had fallen to single digits for the first time; in recent weeks, the vast majority of new cases have been outside China.

The Chinese authorities credit the strict measures they have taken, including placing Hubei under near total lockdown, and preventing big outbreaks in other cities. They said other countries should learn from their efforts.

Zhong Nanshan, the Chinese government's senior medical adviser, said at a news conference on Thursday that as long as countries take the outbreak seriously and are prepared to take firm measures, it could be over worldwide in a matter of months.

"My advice is for all countries to follow World Health Organization instructions and intervene on a national scale. If all countries could get mobilised, it could be over by June."

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Dr Zhong, an epidemiologist with experience from the 2003 Sars outbreak, said viruses in the same family become less active in warm months, which could slow down the spread.

"My estimate of June is based on scenarios that all countries take positive measures. But if some countries do not treat the infectiousness seriously and intervene strongly, it will last longer."

With the marked slowdown of the spread of the virus in China, more businesses have reopened, and containment measures have been eased, but cautiously.

Hubei province announced on Thursday a further loosening of travel restrictions and will also allow some industries to resume production in two of its cities and two counties.

While the virus is spreading quickly globally, its progress in China has slowed markedly in the past seven days. In all, 15 new cases were recorded in mainland China on Wednesday, down from 24 the day before. Seven of the new cases were outside Hubei, including six imported from abroad.

While only 85 of the cases in China have come from abroad, the rising number of such incidences has prompted the authorities to shift their focus to containing the risk of imported cases.

The ruling Communist Party newspaper, The People's Daily, also warned in an editorial that while the number of new virus cases in China was falling, conditions were still difficult and there was a risk of more outbreaks.

China is focusing on restarting factories and businesses hit by the containment policies. Factory activity plunged to its worst level on record in February, and while more businesses have reopened in recent weeks as containment measures have been eased, analysts do not expect activity to return to normal until April.

Airlines have been hit particularly hard. China's airlines reported total losses of 20.96 billion yuan (S$4.2 billion) in February. The total number of airline passengers fell 84.5 per cent year on year last month, China's aviation regulator said.

The Hubei government on Wednesday said Wuhan would allow some key industries to resume work.

On Thursday, it said containment measures would be relaxed in two other cities in the province - Qianjian and Shishou - and in the counties of Gongan and Zhuxi. REUTERS