Fed warns of decline in global growth due to trade conflicts

Washington

TRADE-POLICY uncertainty is holding back global economic growth and may weigh on the world economy into 2020, according to a Federal Reserve research note that puts some hard numbers on an argument the US central bank has made for months.

The rise in trade conflicts in the first half of 2018 "accounts for a decline in the level of global GDP of about 0.8 per cent by the first half of 2019," Dario Caldara and his four co-authors conclude in the note posted on the Fed's website on Sept 4. "Had trade tensions not escalated again in May and June 2019, the drag on GDP…