For pharma, volatility and value are two sides of the same coin

Singapore

FOR the four months to July, Singapore's export-oriented drug industry notched up double-digit yearly growth, while July exports surged a stunning 109 per cent - yet industry players are hard put to forecast a consistent trajectory.

Rather, the prognosis for the notoriously volatile sector is for it to hold "steady".

Given the growing regional demand, and the resources pumped in amid strong regulatory support, why is the sector so volatile? The answer lies in the dynamics of the business.

Pharmaceuticals are highly vulnerable to base-effect blips, no thanks to issues such as inventory stockpiling or changes in drugmaker portfolios.

"It's just a very volatile sector, due to changes in product mixes and maintenance shutdowns that are hard for outsiders to know," said Mer…