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Goldman Sachs keeps Brexit bets unchanged after UK Parliament takes control
[LONDON] Goldman Sachs stuck to its estimates of Brexit outcomes on Tuesday after British lawmakers voted late on Monday to seize control of the parliamentary agenda for a day to break the impasse in Britain's tortuous exit from the European Union (EU).
Although Adrian Paul, European economist at the US bank, said he was sceptical the "indicative votes" planned for Wednesday would prove conclusive, he said they may pave the way for a softer Brexit.
"Many of the options most likely to succeed point towards a "softer Brexit" than currently envisaged by the prime minister," he said.
The likelihood of a general election has climbed in recent days, he added, but the probability of fundamental outcomes of Brexit was unchanged.
Goldman Sachs sees a 15 per cent chance that the UK leaves the EU without a deal, a 35 per cent chance that the UK's decision to leave the EU is overturned, and a 50 per cent chance that lawmakers eventually coalesce around a close variant of the current EU withdrawal agreement.