Last year's low base will lift GDP figures; but sequential numbers can add perspective

Janice Heng

Published Thu, Apr 15, 2021 · 05:50 AM

Singapore

THE upside surprise in the flash estimate of first-quarter growth bodes well for the full year, not least given that the low-base effect from Covid-19 has yet to register significantly - although caveats about the pandemic's unpredictability still apply.

Advance estimates released on Wednesday put first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 0.2 per cent year on year, well in excess of economists' consensus forecast of -0.5 per cent.

On the same day, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) noted in its half-yearly policy statement that full-year growth "is likely to exceed the upper end of the official 4-6 per cent forecast r…