Non-oil domestic exports tipped to fall 1 to 4 per cent for 2020

ESG revises forecast on dampening of economic growth for China, with knock-on impact on regional economies

Published Tue, May 26, 2020 · 09:50 PM

Singapore

WITH Covid-19 morphing into a full blown global pandemic in March that prompted governments to impose a near-freeze on movements and economic activities to tame the spread of the novel coronavirus, hopes for a recovery in Singapore's exports this year appear to have been dashed.

Even as governments are cautiously reopening their economies, Singapore's trade promotion agency Enterprise Singapore (ESG) is looking at the key non-oil domestic exports (NODX) tumbling by as much as 4.0 per cent year on year in 2020,

If the forecast turns out right, this will extend NODX's decline for another year. NODX fell 9.2 per cent in 2019, its worst showing since the 2009 recession.

There were some hopes of a recovery this year. When ESG downgraded its 2020 growth projection for trade in February as the Covid-19 outbreak spread to Singapore, it still allowed for the possibility of NODX growth by up to 1.5 per cent. But as the virus extended its reach across the world with no sign of stopping, the outlook for the global economy has turned bleaker. This led ESG again on Tuesday to cut its growth forecast for NODX, this time leaving no …