'Now or never' to cut emissions and save the planet: UN

LIMITING global warming will require major transitions in the energy sector, as well as immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, said the United Nations' (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report.

The next few years will be particularly critical. Keeping warming to around 1.5 deg C will require global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43 per cent by 2030. At the same time, methane would also need to be cut by about a third.

This will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels such as hydrogen.

"It's now or never," said Jim Skea, co-chair of the IPCC's Working Group III (WG III). "Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible."

WG III is one of the 3 working groups of the IPCC, which is made up of the world's leading climate experts. WG III focuses on climate change mitigation, assessing methods for reducing GHG emissions, and removing GHGs from the atmosphere.

WG I, which published its report last August, looked at the underlying science of climate change; WG II, which published its report in February, assessed the impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities related to climate change.

WG III's report noted that average annual GHG emissions were at their highest levels in human history between 2010 and 2019. But, it also noted that the rate of growth has slowed, and that there is increasing evidence of climate action.

It said that there have been sustained decreases of up to 85 per cent in the costs of solar and wind energy, and batteries, since 2010. It also said that there has been an increasing range of policies and laws that have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced rates of deforestation and accelerated the deployment of renewable energy.

IPCC chair Lee Hoesung said he is encouraged by the climate actions being taken in many countries. "There are policies, regulations and market instruments that are proving effective. If these are scaled up and applied more widely and equitably, they can support deep emissions reductions and stimulate innovation."

Priyadarshi Shukla, co-chair of WG III, added, "Having the right policies, infrastructure and technology in place to enable changes to our lifestyles and behaviour can result in a 40-70 per cent reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. This offers significant untapped potential. The evidence also shows that these lifestyle changes can improve our health and wellbeing."

There are significant opportunities for emissions reductions in cities and other urban areas, WG III's report said. These can be achieved through lower energy consumption - such as by creating compact, walkable cities - electrification of transport in combination with low-emission energy sources, and enhanced carbon uptake and storage using nature.

Emissions in industry - which account for about a quarter of global emissions - can also be cut by using materials more efficiently, reusing and recycling products and minimising waste. It will also require new production processes, low and zero emissions electricity, hydrogen, and, where necessary, carbon capture and storage.

Agriculture, forestry, and other land use can also provide large-scale emissions reductions and also remove and store carbon dioxide (CO2) at scale, WG III noted - though, it added, land cannot compensate for delayed emissions reductions in other sectors.

There is also sufficient global capital and liquidity to close current investment gaps - and financial flows are currently at a factor of 3 to 6 times lower than levels needed by 2030 to limit warming to below 2 deg C.

Clear signalling is needed from governments and the international community, including a stronger alignment of public sector finance and policy, WG III said.

The global temperature will stabilise when CO2 emissions reach net-zero. For 1.5 deg C, this means achieving net-zero CO2 emissions globally in the early 2050s; f,or 2 deg C, it is in the early 2070s.

WG III's report was approved by 195 member governments of the IPCC, and is the third instalment of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed this year.

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