Singapore visitor arrivals continue to rebound strongly in May

SINGAPORE’S international arrivals continued to rebound strongly in May, climbing for the fourth straight month and reaching a new record since the Covid-19 pandemic began, going by the latest figures from the Singapore Tourism Board (STB).

Some 418,310 visitors arrived in Singapore in May, up from 295,100 in April, though this was still far below the 1.5 million recorded in May 2019, before the pandemic. It also remains just a quarter, or around 26 per cent, of the monthly average in 2019, noted DBS Group Research analyst Geraldine Wong.

However, even as visitor arrivals continue to climb, observers do not expect the arrival numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels any time soon.

Said Wong: “At current levels and especially with China’s borders still closed, arrivals are unlikely to bounce back to pre-Covid levels by year end.”

Transport Minister S. Iswaran recently disclosed in May that passenger volume at Changi Airport was near 50 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, but Wong noted that this also factored in outbound travel.

“As a well-travelled bunch, many Singaporeans will be looking to travel some time this year, if they have not already booked flights,” she said.

Indonesia continued to clinch first place as the biggest source of arrivals, sending 86,720 travellers in May, up from 58,330 in April. There were 59,180 visitors from India, up from 41,080 in April.

In third place was Malaysia, which accounted for 43,170 visitors in May, a jump from 25,320 in April. Australia came in fourth, with 31,400 travellers, against 27,380 in April.

China, Singapore’s biggest inbound market from 2017 to 2019, sent just 7,150 visitors in May, slightly more than a month ago, when just 5,050 visitors from there arrived in Singapore.

Maybank economist Lee Ju Ye said: “The jump in visitor arrivals in May to 28 per cent of pre-pandemic levels is encouraging, and we think that numbers will continue rising over the next few months as travel restrictions and Covid test requirements are eased more significantly across the region.”

She expects visitor arrivals to exceed a million per month, or nearly two-thirds of pre-pandemic levels, by the end of the year.

Wong, too, expects the monthly visitor arrival numbers to grow even stronger, with higher highs year on year this year.

“June will show a seasonal peak, but we are also optimistic about the return of business travellers as Mice (meetings, incentives, conferencing, exhibitions) events ramp up in H2 2022, to add to robust leisure demand,” she added, noting that Mice travellers usually make up 15 per cent of Singapore’s inbound arrivals.

Agreeing, Govinda Singh, Colliers’ executive director for hotel and leisure in Asia, said the uptick in business travel can be partly attributed to Singapore benefiting from Hong Kong’s virtual closure as a connecting hub.

However, the analysts said it is unlikely that inbound arrivals will rebound to pre-pandemic levels by the year-end.

“It will be very optimistic to expect visitor numbers to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year,” said Singh. While pent up demand is driving travel for now, he noted that the appetite for travel may be tempered once this novelty wears off, and if airfares remain high.

“Factor in continued uncertainty around China, we would not expect a return to pre-pandemic levels by year end, but perhaps in Q3 2023,” he said.

Aside from rising airfare costs, Lee noted that surging living costs in other countries, as well as a Sing dollar stronger than other currencies in the region, may dampen sentiments for outbound travel in the later year.

“We think visitor arrivals will return to pre-pandemic levels only in 2023 or 2024,” she said.